Market Update for Week 2021-10-25

Published: 2021-11-01

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

More paused markets

Last week I spoke about how resilient the prediction games have been and that week's pause was the first one in over a month. Well, about that (red marks paused markets)...

prediction contract

The markets were pretty much non-functional for much of the week. This had to do with overall binance smart chain market congestion and issues with The Graph so I can't blame the PancakeSwap team. I do wish the team officially paused the markets rather than letting them stall out though. The executeRound function locks in the final price for a round. If it hasn't been called called by the closeTimestamp time, the round is officially cancelled and the game needs to be restarted. But the operator still has to call pause on the contract for the game to be officially paused on the app.

When the games re-opened we saw sparse volume, but that seems to have picked up by Monday morning.

Winners and losers

Some people have a deep bankroll or they're just gluttons for pain. Our friend from last week, 0xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c9, just can't seem to give up the games. He had one of the biggest losses of the week in round 16216. He bet 46.13. As usual, people piled in on the other side of the bet to even out the odds, but that still didn't help since he ende up you blowing ~$23,000 in 5 minutes. Don't do this. 0x3e4ab47e0fa186fce56b41da86b7bba730941755

0xc89 actually had number 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7 of our biggest losers this week. Honorable mention to 0x3e4ab47e0fa186fce56b41da86b7bba730941755 who blew 30 BNB on round 16181. He only played 43 games but went through 109 BNB or ~$58,000. He's since emptied out his account for the most part.

It's actually encouraging when I see people make large bets and odds more or less even out. That means there are a lot of people sitting on the side-line waiting for these opportunities. And it helps the whales since they get better odds. Although betting such large amounts into a shallow pool is still not advisable.

As for the winners, 0xf133bc440526f54dbc10cb2510ceb79e5cf6a1c4 has a hell of a tear. In 80 games, he won 77.1 BNB with large bet sizes.


His strategy is to bump the bet size on losses so he makes up for his losses with his wins. This is known as the Martingale betting system. It could theoretically work but practically you're not able to double your bet size indefinitely as you'll eventually go broke. Also don't do this.

I would actually love to interview some of these people. It could be anonymous but I would like to get some insight in different betting strategies and personal stories from people playing. If anyone would like to talk reach out to me and I can feature you on future posts.

That's it for this week, but I'm excited that the markets are back and volume is picking back up. Feel free to reach out with questions or comments. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!