Market Update for Week 2021-11-01

Published: 2021-11-08

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

What a week

We saw a lot of action this week with round size spiking hard on Friday and continuing strong throughout the weekend. This coincided with a strong BNB rally to levels we haven't ever seen in v2 of the games. With BNB up to mid-600s, we're nearing all time highs reached pre-crypto collapse in April of 2021.

BNB Price
Ether and Bitcoin have been rallying since October approaching near all time highs, but BNB has been lagging until popping this week by about 20%. CAKE has been doing pretty well as well for anyone staking in PancakeSwap.

If you're throwing around real weight in prediction markets, I would recommend keeping only the minimum amount of working capital in your active wallet and transferring into and out of it as needed. I see this patten a lot on very active accounts where there is one wallet that distributes to smaller wallets to play.

I would also recommend not being over-exposed to one crypto currency. You can stay in the BNB ecosystem and shifting your tokens to wrapped BNB, ETH or stable coins (other than Tether).

Winners and Losers

Here are the big winners for this week.

fromgames playedwonwon even money
0x9cfbdbc1561b1e9eb3183d74d847dce9b53ae590679 70.22 23.27
0xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c911 51.75 3.58
0xe58298470e415de4208feb34741a7737d18c212351 45.32 7.84
0xc480fa7faf9e22b4756287770e9af51716b0d335379 35.09 4.63
0x7479376637d999ca9f1cb2f214cbd2c8ce10b7f67 23.57 0.30
0xd9430ec9f7e91f30027fc4c8dcc780b169d25a22262 22.45 25.13

A lot of the big winners just bet big. You can tell by looking at the prediction leaderboard and noticing the winner only played 18 games with huge bet sizes. He might have some alpha, but winning 16 out of 18 alone isn't all that impressive and the bet sizes are reckless.

That being said, 0x9cf did great even with even bets and the number of games played is impressive.

I like to also consider even money bet size, which assumes that each bet was for a fixed amount. This underplays the skill of the player because dynamic bet sizing based on probability and payout are incredibly important. But it's also true that not everyone has a 6 figure bankroll to play with.

fromgames playedwonwon even money
0xb859654ed6ef01ea16e0f7988b6a50d07727976c932 15.5247075450082 67.9269178996664
0x620a727b9cc4ba48a809c14cd9f4399c7f31c800277 2.63628738380167 59.2981801062967
0x6a70fd0f76b5d5f8874307f91c4ec22c617f999c895 7.78111495382275 55.3195938479955
0x8cef9eefbaa17779c37f6569413d0bdb02469ea9583 15.2389594731505 47.8070799649447
0x0be28a5d93960168ba4f4aded7f7ff113aa2d22e484 10.1230384030531 46.3643725942199
0xe0759804bc9d40a78ad066fad61b86f232efce2b305 0.318635120051004 43.9750903812996

These are some very impressive numbers and consistent performance while playing around the clock.

And of course the losers need some love too. They contribute to the payoff. Fallen heros, we salute you.

fromgames playedwonwon even money
0x0f4107e03d6ad34e781b13d806b9f881bbe47ad4183 -234.77 -26.73
0xc46cf5e7a4d11b9f1f9c86c02ed5a7fc6a119c92799 -152.53 -34.40
0x35195c58974ac78520abeb6010fc95695f738267279 -86.88 -29.28
0xcec86bf515f78697fb13f6899268430d6c71e34c25 -80.37 -6.84
0x39465e192b63e42a3daf16c88b721deea9e913ce15 -75.84 -4.97
0xbce32e48e4b5f1ac056d98e51e5d90103d13484e32 -62.53 -1.19


There's a lot of things brewing here that I'll be announcing over the next few days/weeks. I'm going to release starter code to run your own trading bot. I also decided to open up an API for users to query player and fund stats. So look out for that. Best way not to miss that is to subscribe to the mailing list.

I'm also open to interviewing people anonymously via email about their strategy and trading setup. Email me if you're interested.

That's it for this week. It's exciting living through another crypto rally. As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!