Market Update for Week 2021-11-29

Published: 2021-12-06

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.


I've been putting this off for a while but I finally implemented a leaderboard in BSC Predict. It's updated ever 20 minutes. You can see the Leaderboard tab next to History. You can even click on any account and see every bet they've made.

You have the option to sort by total amount won and by Even Money. Even Money just means that it standardizes the users bets to 1 BNB, evening out the effect bet sizes have on leaderboard. I think its a more interesting measure.


I also made some improvements to the way bets are collected in the app to be more resilient and work better on accounts with a large number of bets.

Another crypto crash

The big story in crypto this week as a sharp crash on Friday/Saturday. The price of Bitcoin dropped $9k or nearly 20% in one hour. No one is interested in why it happened at this point. People who don't like crypto cheer-lead and laugh from the sidelines as Bitcoin drops to prices not seen since early October. People who are optimistic lie about buying the dip. And we all end up exactly where we left off.

I haven't looked into it too closely, but what I think happened is a few large liquidations which set off a chain of liquidations of leveraged long positions. You can do great analysis on the block chain if you're so inclined. Map out where these liquidations came from, what exchanges originated it, whats the history of those that liquidated, etc. But it's a lot of work without much payoff. You won't get any actionable insight that you can trade on. You won't convince anyone of anything. And the bull/bears will continue being bulls/bears.

Since everything in crypto land is correlated for some strange reason, BNB dropped a similar percentage as did other cryptocurrencies. Not much else to say there.

There were a lot of network issues I noticed on BSC Predict as well as my personal trading bot. The network was dropping transactions and pretty much every BSC rpc was dog-shit, at least in the beginning of the week. Even simple MetaMask transactions weren't going through. So no, it wasn't just you.


Here's an updated list of stoppages. They lined up with BSC network issues. If you look at the history before the stoppage you'll notice rounds were incredibly shallow with pool size of only a few BNB. In fact, the largest winning payoff of the week was epoch 24510 on 2021-12-01 06:08:07, with a payoff of 10.88x with a total amount of only 3 BNB!

EpochStart Time
239882021-11-29 07:58:48
239912021-11-29 08:43:21
239982021-11-29 10:05:07
245302021-12-01 20:46:07
245332021-12-02 01:24:47
249122021-12-03 20:58:19
249492021-12-04 06:07:07

Winners and Losers

Here are this weeks winners:

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10x3b6d6d1b7aa126e6b7aa35881b305c685817e9c6535 74.1942,288 26.92 2.14
20xf9b41c6664888e303addf9b4bd7f214669f6bf62633 60.6 34,542 105.44 0.31
30xe0f4a4e8b1887d56c32389d58c757ffd94539e3d212 56.7132,324 29.16 2.6
40x57df36921efeedb7f9a03daefbc7fa7f4fae11d7324 52.6430,004 48.39 1.13
50x0785e4153838855a2ab6e519ffb0df3d27fd82eb324 43.8 24,966 69.81 0.26
60xfc34ba43294468f9d63c7904e728bfe27604c29434 40.3823,016 8.56 1.23
70xa308a251d9660cd2d97c29a810b5c6f406e1e045108 39.6222,583 8.3 2.06
80x41c5e98c3cc4ecddb889ceb16e8b09c2e67007ca227 31.9718,222 9.6 0.6
90x5a9390b08a7d8fb50ea8d51aac5bc39ecfdf2bc255 30.2817,259 11.49 2.14
100x24ad8c284562c56daf8249a486bcbedcf7ec8c37251 28.7716,398 33.77 1.18

Our top player of the week is 0x3b6, who was also featured last week as one of our biggest losers. He was down 60 last week, but he made up for that and more this week with a total win of 74.19. He's still down around 65 BNB over his life, but he's on the right track.

0xf9b4 (#2) and 0x0785 (#5) did great with a small bet size of 0.31 and 0.26, respectively, which I can respect. Hats off to them.

Now onto our losers.

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c9160-260.59 -148,770 -20.3211.3
20x639f8725237f11964301e69bc5449d0b7c4b698135-135.16 -76,950 15.14 4.57
30x3644d5bb8fdf6219adac7ef11eea8193a5305642216-60.48 -34,200 -19.1 2.27
40xfb764b4c19da041ae78e780fb69594c9d8329bf917-54.95 -31,350 -0.99 11.37
50xbdb5829f5452bd10bb569b5b9b54732001ab5ab9107-49.07 -27,930 -11.32 2.61
60x9cfbdbc1561b1e9eb3183d74d847dce9b53ae590540-46.49 -26,220 -62.34 0.64
70xcfb3837416fc0ef2bb00067706acf2f62a44ced911-42.57 -24,510 -6.94 4.7
80xe91448d1d0e283d9951196d70a642a39b3816f7b144-39.33 -22,230 -16.0 1.31
90x3ee4323c2979d200f6fc1404c3829fbd8879179b284-38.22 -21,660 -30.34 0.74
100x0b08735b1201dd501fdd64ecee56b6a458ca5e00102-30.85 -17,670 -19.45 1.66

0xc892 (#1) just can't stop. He tops our losers again this week with a total loss of 260 BNB over 160 games. This brings his lifetime winnings of around -850 BNB, or nearly half a million dollars. I would say he should just flip his bets but he's moving the odds so much that he could lose over time regardless of his bets.

0x3644 (#3) and 0xe914 was a winner last week. They're both about flat over their life. You seeing any patterns here? The strategy works until it doesn't. And by the time you realize it's not working its already too late.

0xbdb5 (#5) similarly showed up as a winner on 2021-11-22, but gave most of it back this week. He's still up around 10 BNB over his life though.

0x9cfb (#6) had a bad week. He was on our leaderboard just last week with a total winning of nearly 100 BNB! He's still up over 40 though, so don't feel too bad.

Nothing but love for our losers.

And that's all for this week. Look out for new posts and announcements coming up soon, including an open source prediction bot!

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!