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Today I'm going to do something a little different. I'm going to talk about PancakeSwap Lottery and check out their big winners and losers.
Pancake Swap Lottery
PancakeSwap Lottery works like any other lottery. You buy a ticket, get a number and a number is drawn. Depending on how many digits your number matches, you get a payout.
Numbers are matched left to right. So for instance if your number is 112556 and the winning number is 132556, you win bracket 1 since both your numbers started with 1.
| ticket | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| winner | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| bracket | 1 | - | - | - | - | - |
If you match the first 2, then you're in bracket 2. You can't be in more than 1 bracket.
| ticket | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| winner | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| bracket | - | 2 | - | - | - | - |
Payouts are allocated as a percentage of the pool size as follows:
| Digits matched | Prize pool allocation |
| Matches first 1 | 2% |
| Matches first 2 | 3% |
| Matches first 3 | 5% |
| Matches first 4 | 10% |
| Matches first 5 | 20% |
| Matches all 6 | 40% |
| Burn Pool | 20% |
Apparently PancakeSwap doesn't make any money off the lottery and just uses it to prop up their CAKE token.
By my count, there have been around 4 million tickets purchased and around 388,000 claims on those tickets for a win rate of around 9.7%. This makes sense because the odds of winning are 1 in 10 or 10%. And of course some people forget to claim.
Matching all 6 numbers has only happened 3 times out of 330 lotteries on lottery id 12, 16 and 261. If no one matches a bracket, the pool rolls over to the next lottery. This makes sense as well since hitting all 6 numbers is about 1 in a million (10^6) and there have been 4 million games played. The expected number of people who hit all 6 is 4, but 3 is pretty close! It's interesting that two of them happened so early on though...
Now that you have some background, lets get to the winners and losers!
Winners and Losers
When I originally went into this, I figured the biggest absolute winner would be a hardcore player. It would reason that the more you play the more likely you are to win big. I'm not saying the person would have made money, but I figure there are people that bought 100k in tickets and happened to win 50k.
For the guy with the highest winnings, that's what happened.
| place | from | cake won | best bracket | tickets won | tickets bought | cake spent | winning / spent |
| 1 | 0x599f512ecf711be5745fcb3f4bfc6e8cfdf17cc7 | 82,137 | 5 | 2,896 | 28,600 | 10,010.0 | 8.21 |
| 2 | 0x83a6e23b685e94260f6e6979314ac267375b95e2 | 52,070 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1.9 | 27,405.46 |
| 3 | 0x4c7f00c32da983fca8ec856d158dbd6f558de1da | 38,960 | 4 | 55 | 565 | 200.65 | 194.17 |
| 4 | 0xbf264d5d078b8e7a12f554dd8a2c07625d84325c | 33,718 | 4 | 2,846 | 29,512 | 10,034.08 | 3.36 |
| 5 | 0x5a14010eb04f5db1b764eea71c83f4d0c3ec9869 | 28,478 | 4 | 49 | 482 | 138.77 | 205.22 |
| 6 | 0xe99140fc04e458ac58d47c29c0649bcc3914dc0a | 26,043 | 4 | 26 | 216 | 68.52 | 380.09 |
| 7 | 0x831127f224fff143dbf2645fef412bada1da794f | 15,241 | 4 | 5 | 77 | 26.05 | 585.07 |
| 8 | 0x303d0e1ec982df5d681f7c5c0d323619fdfb8cf7 | 15,420 | 4 | 127 | 1,200 | 381.0 | 40.47 |
| 9 | 0x731886f831c481f10f5701d51b22c989a6c14e66 | 6,187 | 5 | 12 | 112 | 28.18 | 219.57 |
| 10 | 0xccbdda1a2e968415e19fbc91ea25bb57f588db07 | 6067 | 4 | 427 | 4,272 | 1285.07 | 4.72 |
I mentioned earlier how only 3 times has anyone won the top bracket. Unsurprisingly, all 3 of those players are in the top 10 of all time winning.
The top guy looks like a regular player, having won about average (10%). He played 28k games, won 2.8k for a bounty of 82k CAKE. He had spent just over 10k cake for a payout of 8.21x. But his biggest win in bracket 5 put him in the number one spot. In fact, most of his winnings came from a single lottery!
Here are his top 3 winnings.
| from | lottery id | bracket | price | won |
| 0x599f512ecf711be5745fcb3f4bfc6e8cfdf17cc7 | 16 | 5 | 0.35 | 77,686.57 |
| 0x599f512ecf711be5745fcb3f4bfc6e8cfdf17cc7 | 16 | 3 | 0.35 | 924.84 |
| 0x599f512ecf711be5745fcb3f4bfc6e8cfdf17cc7 | 16 | 3 | 0.35 | 924.84 |
In total, he's played 2 lotteries, 15 and 16 and bought a total of 399 and 2,497 tickets, respectively. He bought them in batches of 100 (the max allowed). I would say its a little sus, but around 95% of his winnings came from one ticket.
#2 on the list is a story I love. Dude bought 7 tickets for 1.9 CAKE, about $25, won 2 of them, came away with 52,000 CAKE or around $676,000, and walked away. The funny thing is he bought 2 tickets in lottery 12 (1 of which was his big win), then he took a break for a while. Then he bought 1 ticket in lottery 76, didn't win. Another one in lottery 85, won 0.23 or about his ticket price. Then another 3 in lottery 94, nothing. That's it.
This guy has to be the most chill person on PancakeSwap. First time playing winning huge on two tickets, then just walking away. He still owns the cake!
The rest of the people are stories similar to either extreme.
Because this is BSC Predict and we love our losers, let's give them some respect:
| Place | from | cake won | best bracket | tickets won | tickets bought | cake spent | cake won / cake spent | loss |
| 1 | 0x692c4ac3549e2cdea991ec919b8d8ab95ae15484 | 2,539 | 3 | 2,858 | 29,500 | 10,030 | 0.2532 | -7,491.0 |
| 2 | 0x4cf1605726decf789f699721f30220a96839adfc | 3,195 | 3 | 2,843 | 28,700 | 10,045 | 0.3181 | -6,850.0 |
| 3 | 0xbfa5a2320efee21cb779a9d4b31fd85a3a85b590 | 3,833 | 3 | 2,916 | 29,500 | 10,030 | 0.3822 | -6,197.0 |
| 4 | 0xfdbf65f50f1660f929e566a5732fd1e6b80fdfb5 | 4,976 | 3 | 2,938 | 29,500 | 10,030 | 0.4961 | -5,054.0 |
| 5 | 0x15ee631c7575368a1ebf9cd81e837226dcc26acf | 5,085 | 3 | 2,817 | 28,468 | 9,964 | 0.5103 | -4,879.0 |
| 6 | 0x51e960899d5988356911ffbee4616dc7aff9b007 | 1,656 | 2 | 1,078 | 15,060 | 5,157 | 0.3211 | -3,501.0 |
| 7 | 0x83037d633813d101299a84e5b131e19305fdfd1d | 3,422 | 2 | 2,307 | 23,074 | 6,509 | 0.5257 | -3,087.0 |
| 8 | 0x9effe7df9d35dbad224c515ac4cac3f64dd08817 | 7,364 | 3 | 3,270 | 32,000 | 10,400 | 0.7081 | -3,036.0 |
| 9 | 0x4547c38b27ec1b664dea4c50743d0f3bf3eb7311 | 9,415 | 3 | 4,647 | 38,435 | 12,271 | 0.7672 | -2,856.0 |
| 10 | 0x86e3df15f583ec76bdd30a0d02e3e2398bf344df | 7,262 | 3 | 2,819 | 28,800 | 10,080 | 0.7205 | -2,818.0 |
The losers aren't even particularly unlucky. The win-rate is what we'd expect, around 10%. They just happen to bet a lot. The top dude spent around $50k on tickets, and won $12.5k. It could be worse. The dude just likes to spend a lot on tickets. Everyone else is more or less the same story.
But the losers do grow the pot for everyone else. And for that, we salute you.
Take care and bet responsibly!