Winners and Losers (Lottery Edition)

Published: 2021-12-16

Subscribe to receive an email every time a new post has been published.

Today I'm going to do something a little different. I'm going to talk about PancakeSwap Lottery and check out their big winners and losers.

Pancake Swap Lottery

PancakeSwap Lottery works like any other lottery. You buy a ticket, get a number and a number is drawn. Depending on how many digits your number matches, you get a payout.

Numbers are matched left to right. So for instance if your number is 112556 and the winning number is 132556, you win bracket 1 since both your numbers started with 1.


If you match the first 2, then you're in bracket 2. You can't be in more than 1 bracket.


Payouts are allocated as a percentage of the pool size as follows:

Digits matchedPrize pool allocation
Matches first 12%
Matches first 23%
Matches first 35%
Matches first 410%
Matches first 520%
Matches all 640%
Burn Pool20%

Apparently PancakeSwap doesn't make any money off the lottery and just uses it to prop up their CAKE token.

By my count, there have been around 4 million tickets purchased and around 388,000 claims on those tickets for a win rate of around 9.7%. This makes sense because the odds of winning are 1 in 10 or 10%. And of course some people forget to claim.

Matching all 6 numbers has only happened 3 times out of 330 lotteries on lottery id 12, 16 and 261. If no one matches a bracket, the pool rolls over to the next lottery. This makes sense as well since hitting all 6 numbers is about 1 in a million (10^6) and there have been 4 million games played. The expected number of people who hit all 6 is 4, but 3 is pretty close! It's interesting that two of them happened so early on though...

Now that you have some background, lets get to the winners and losers!

Winners and Losers

When I originally went into this, I figured the biggest absolute winner would be a hardcore player. It would reason that the more you play the more likely you are to win big. I'm not saying the person would have made money, but I figure there are people that bought 100k in tickets and happened to win 50k.

For the guy with the highest winnings, that's what happened.

placefromcake wonbest brackettickets wontickets boughtcake spentwinning / spent
10x599f512ecf711be5745fcb3f4bfc6e8cfdf17cc7 82,13752,89628,60010,010.08.21
20x83a6e23b685e94260f6e6979314ac267375b95e2 52,0705271.927,405.46
30x4c7f00c32da983fca8ec856d158dbd6f558de1da 38,960455565200.65194.17
40xbf264d5d078b8e7a12f554dd8a2c07625d84325c 33,71842,84629,51210,034.083.36
50x5a14010eb04f5db1b764eea71c83f4d0c3ec9869 28,478449482138.77205.22
60xe99140fc04e458ac58d47c29c0649bcc3914dc0a 26,04342621668.52380.09
70x831127f224fff143dbf2645fef412bada1da794f 15,241457726.05585.07
80x303d0e1ec982df5d681f7c5c0d323619fdfb8cf7 15,42041271,200381.040.47
90x731886f831c481f10f5701d51b22c989a6c14e66 6,18751211228.18219.57
100xccbdda1a2e968415e19fbc91ea25bb57f588db07 606744274,2721285.074.72

I mentioned earlier how only 3 times has anyone won the top bracket. Unsurprisingly, all 3 of those players are in the top 10 of all time winning.

The top guy looks like a regular player, having won about average (10%). He played 28k games, won 2.8k for a bounty of 82k CAKE. He had spent just over 10k cake for a payout of 8.21x. But his biggest win in bracket 5 put him in the number one spot. In fact, most of his winnings came from a single lottery!

Here are his top 3 winnings.

fromlottery idbracketpricewon

In total, he's played 2 lotteries, 15 and 16 and bought a total of 399 and 2,497 tickets, respectively. He bought them in batches of 100 (the max allowed). I would say its a little sus, but around 95% of his winnings came from one ticket.

#2 on the list is a story I love. Dude bought 7 tickets for 1.9 CAKE, about $25, won 2 of them, came away with 52,000 CAKE or around $676,000, and walked away. The funny thing is he bought 2 tickets in lottery 12 (1 of which was his big win), then he took a break for a while. Then he bought 1 ticket in lottery 76, didn't win. Another one in lottery 85, won 0.23 or about his ticket price. Then another 3 in lottery 94, nothing. That's it.

This guy has to be the most chill person on PancakeSwap. First time playing winning huge on two tickets, then just walking away. He still owns the cake!

The rest of the people are stories similar to either extreme.

Because this is BSC Predict and we love our losers, let's give them some respect:

Placefromcake wonbest brackettickets wontickets boughtcake spentcake won / cake spentloss
10x692c4ac3549e2cdea991ec919b8d8ab95ae154842,539 3 2,85829,50010,030 0.2532-7,491.0
20x4cf1605726decf789f699721f30220a96839adfc3,195 3 2,84328,70010,045 0.3181-6,850.0
30xbfa5a2320efee21cb779a9d4b31fd85a3a85b5903,833 3 2,91629,50010,030 0.3822-6,197.0
40xfdbf65f50f1660f929e566a5732fd1e6b80fdfb54,976 3 2,93829,50010,030 0.4961-5,054.0
50x15ee631c7575368a1ebf9cd81e837226dcc26acf5,085 3 2,81728,4689,964 0.5103-4,879.0
60x51e960899d5988356911ffbee4616dc7aff9b0071,656 2 1,07815,0605,157 0.3211-3,501.0
70x83037d633813d101299a84e5b131e19305fdfd1d3,422 2 2,30723,0746,509 0.5257-3,087.0
80x9effe7df9d35dbad224c515ac4cac3f64dd088177,364 3 3,27032,00010,400 0.7081-3,036.0
90x4547c38b27ec1b664dea4c50743d0f3bf3eb73119,415 3 4,64738,43512,271 0.7672-2,856.0
100x86e3df15f583ec76bdd30a0d02e3e2398bf344df7,262 3 2,81928,80010,080 0.7205-2,818.0

The losers aren't even particularly unlucky. The win-rate is what we'd expect, around 10%. They just happen to bet a lot. The top dude spent around $50k on tickets, and won $12.5k. It could be worse. The dude just likes to spend a lot on tickets. Everyone else is more or less the same story.

But the losers do grow the pot for everyone else. And for that, we salute you.

Take care and bet responsibly!