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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
Christmas Week
Merry Christmas all!
I wasn't sure how this week would turn out volume wise. We were coming off a very hot week, but, you know... Christmas and all. Volumes dropped considerably early in the week and never quite recovered. Most of the week we spent sub-30 BNB 24-hour trailing average round size. But no stoppages, which is nice.
We saw 4 100+ BNB rounds, all on Monday. The biggest round of the week, 29453, had a pool size of 128 BNB. Over half of the volume was made up by one user, 0x6479e0162b5fc3aee06feebbacc001b9bd9cb2d2. Well, he lost, but so many of us have gained.
If you notice the betting pattern, he dropped 10 BNB 3 rounds prior, lost. Then he dropped 30, lost again. Finally he dropped the big one: 76 BNB, or around $40k, and lost again. Next round he pulled back and bet only 1.3 BNB, which is a shame because he won that round.
All in all, not a great week for our friend. But it could have been worse. If you look, he lost 125 BNB in his last 20 rounds, but he was only down 73 BNB throughout his life. Which means he was up a lot just prior to the end. But isn't that always the case? We're up until we're not.
Bet responsibly people.
Prediction bot scams
I came across a number of prediction bots on github that claim to win money. I even found a bot that presumably front-runs people's trades!
But things that are too good to be true usually are. Any public bot that claims to give you a winning strategy is a scam
For instance, the bot in the link above has a very interesting strategy of ... checks code ... betting bear if the bear payout is higher than the bull. Okay, that's not fair, it's more complicated. Here's the real strategy:
bet bear if: (bull > bear and bull / bear < 5) OR (bull < bear and bear / bull > 5)
But don't worry, they have an "experimental" strategy as well that... checks code... does the opposite.
Don't worry though, it must have been an oversight, so I filed an issue so the owner explicitly states the strategy. So hopefully it gets corrected soon... oh wait, he closed the issue. Oh well.
Why do they bother? Well, because they charge a "tax" on every win! At least they disclose it, although its kind of hidden! See if you can find it.
There was another one that just bet on the higher payout. Same "small tax" strategy though. But that's not all! It uses 1.6 martingale strategy! Here's my issue with the owner (also closed)
I published a bot, but not any winning strategies. You have to provide your own and you're responsible for testing it.
No one will give you a winning strategy, myself included. If they claim they will, they're lying. If they had a winning strategy they'd use it themselves and hide it. At least that's what I did when I had a winning strategy! When others bet on the same bet, it lowers the payout and a winning strategy quickly becomes a losing strategy very quickly.
They create random strategies and give themselves a kickback if by chance they win. They take no risk or have any downside, but you're paying them when they randomly win. I haven't found any outright scams where they just empty your account, but this is still bad. These people should be ashamed.
Speaking of losers...
Winners and Losers
| Place | account | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xb4eef1e7c6e571d088e1b1e5b6dd7e2f66bea1dd | 35 | 73.29 | 41,610.0 | 4.52 | 6.83 |
| 2 | 0x63601e212e97d3291999ecea62ba0b8e88d52166 | 277 | 54.63 | 31,350.0 | -5.91 | 3.26 |
| 3 | 0x2c0f6b835a3d2182bb04bcf30e32ebb93f3f363b | 535 | 38.91 | 22,230.0 | 31.34 | 1.22 |
| 4 | 0xfb0ec12b750b8972488e1e9660a90515b88f4792 | 900 | 36.5 | 20,520.0 | 45.62 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 0x71996de61c2e428e31d045ca8d3226b26a40cd6b | 244 | 34.73 | 19,950.0 | 21.32 | 0.99 |
| 6 | 0x54870bfc2b65fc4a4766e60aeccf50537fc48241 | 441 | 30.88 | 17,670.0 | 48.92 | 0.48 |
| 7 | 0x891a06aea7770a04826c09d76963c4c9a546598e | 123 | 30.68 | 17,670.0 | 21.53 | 1.27 |
| 8 | 0xcdcbed7024fc52f070dbb9b4cd6d48baff4bdbd8 | 207 | 29.84 | 17,100.0 | 19.0 | 0.76 |
| 9 | 0x5e071b4ff18b7616497111616a7dc71d350c889b | 75 | 29.71 | 17,100.0 | 13.78 | 5.2 |
| 10 | 0x7d320fc9e1ad974d3b6dd42297c04cd2e37cfbd6 | 152 | 22.49 | 12,540.0 | 28.48 | 1.99 |
Our two biggest winners are just high roller that just stumbled upon a few winning bets. In fact, #2 lost on average, but his big bets won, so he came out ahead.
I say #2 is lucky as opposed to skillful on bet sizing because games are independent. You should size your bet based on your probability of winning. The more likely you are to win, the more you should bet. You should not bet based on how much you bet in the past. Outside of some rare exceptions, every bet should be thought of as independent. If your small bets lose money, such that your average bet loses money, don't make those small bets!
We've seen a trend over the last few weeks as of fewer algo bots as top performers. One exception is if #4 who has played a total of over 7k games over his life, with a total winning of 75 BNB. I will note though that winning 36 BNB over 900 games, nearly doubling your total pot from 7k games means you're running hot. I would prefer a bot that makes a steady amount over time. Because if you jack up the bet size or frequency, you jack up the risk. And no strategy lasts in this game...
Let's see how the losers did
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x7f9f833f28ae5f5afa7a9714c9958cde3ec6f7aa | 509 | -90.56 | -51,870.0 | -37.96 | 2.07 |
| 2 | 0xdd0c7c6fbb415e685785f0f3027f77e461f65468 | 46 | -77.81 | -44,460.0 | -9.28 | 4.29 |
| 3 | 0xc9af6c874b78655acebc503d4232cf10d88a0442 | 123 | -77.65 | -44,460.0 | -8.69 | 1.01 |
| 4 | 0x6479e0162b5fc3aee06feebbacc001b9bd9cb2d2 | 70 | -65.05 | -37,050.0 | -8.44 | 13.11 |
| 5 | 0x48efbe5f12fdbf637f60f1a35ac3e90d61607ae4 | 12 | -61.67 | -35,340.0 | -6.6 | 7.96 |
| 6 | 0x415636005128c69fbbc63fc5689bd50693e91925 | 80 | -53.72 | -30,780. | 4.16 | 8.57 |
| 7 | 0x0df58d858792992fd9c3bbef07a93111e3b105a1 | 5 | -48.22 | -27,360.0 | -3.11 | 10.4 |
| 8 | 0xd390fd42b501a74dd7a8747fb0731bb7ea88f9bb | 10 | -44.65 | -25,650.0 | -5.97 | 6.81 |
| 9 | 0x57e715e2a9e0e759b84539e480952e90abc82382 | 42 | -42.19 | -23,940.0 | -4.28 | 2.37 |
| 10 | 0xdcaa09767836d7e4f936f2c952a81cf881589a8f | 486 | -41.61 | -23,940.0 | -16.71 | 1.12 |
Our #1 loser (0x7f9) for this week is making his fifth appearance on the blog! Sometimes a winner, sometimes a loser, but always a fan favorite. His lifetime total is -232 BNB or around $125k. But it may be that he finally ran out of steam because, at time of writing, he's balance is down to 0.14 BNB. We salute the fallen and he will be missed!
0xdd0 (our #2) is making a return appearance on the blog. Last week he was up 45 BNB and this week he gave it all back and then some. His lifetime losses are -76 BNB, but look at those bets, he's got balls of steel. I don't think we've seen the last of him!
How many times do I have to tell you people, don't double your bet if you lose! That's not how these games works. Your odds don't go up because you've just lost. If anything they go down because your strategy isn't working.
Our number 4 (0x6479) we spoke about up there. He's the santa dropping 70 BNB in a single round for the rest of us to pick up.
Nothing else too remarkable with the losers. Lots of new blood and big bets which I like. As always, nothing but love for our losers.
And that's all for this week. Lots of good things coming up!
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!