Subscribe to receive an email every time a new post has been published.
All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
Last week was a rough week. This week was better. Bitcoin briefly touched sub 40k, and BNB dropped to low 400s, only to end the week around 500, which is moving in the right direction.
I've been trying to engage more in twitter (follow me!), and I noted there that crypto tends to crash quickly and take weeks to build back up. So you remember the 20-30% crashes and lots of crypto bears celebrate. The same articles get recycled about a crypto crash. But before you know it, the price is back up to prior levels.
I don't feel like there is too much hype in the space. The big crash from the first time Bitcoin was above 60k (and BNB was at 650) was in May 2020. At that time there was more of a sense of FOMO. And it took 6 months to recover to those levels, and even then the price level was fleeting. Now we've been through a few of these cycles and hopefully the hype has died down and we're looking at more stable demand.
The difference between now and then is NFT hype, but I don't know if that carries over. I wonder if investors in NFTs are even bullish on crypto in general apart from their jpegs. I would like to see the typical Bitcoin ownership of people with significant NFT exposure. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't much above average.
We had low volume overall in the games this week. For the second half of the week, rolling 24-hour pool size was less than 30, but I think that was due to network issues. My bot wasn't able to get her trades in for a number of rounds (yes my bot is female). We even had a handful of rounds with a volume of less than 10 BNB, which is almost always network issues. On the flip side, we did have 2 90+ BNB rounds which is always nice to see.
Winners and Losers
|Place||account||games played||won||won USD||Winnings Even Money||Average bet size|
One winner above 100 BNB, with your typical big bet size. This is his first time entering the games. He played only 35 games, won large and cashed out. I like to follow what these guys do after cashing out large, but I'm almost always disappointed. I admire these guys. The games are very tough and these guys came up ahead and they knew when to cash out. So what are they doing now? Usually I see them investing in some shitcoin or sometimes straight gambling.
I don't know, maybe I'm missing out? I see prediction as a game of skill. It's gambling of course, and I think the whales that win large are lucky, but it is a game of skill. Not only is it a time series forecasting, but its also about psychology as the system isn't closed. The odds change up until the point the game is closed, so you have to take that into consideration. And there are other considerations like people copying your bet, moving the odds against you.
Well, here's #1 in all his glory.
Anyway, #2 had an incredible run and made up for some losses from earlier, bringing his total winnings to 19.4 BNB.
Not sure if he's an algo-trader as 184 games is certainly doable in a week, although not advisable! Learn to code people! It's not that hard, write a bot and get a job. I even have starter code for you. And if you can't formalize your strategy, then you don't have a strategy, you're gambling. Which is fine, but don't pretend like its anything else. And always bet cautiously.
Lets see how our losers did.
|Place||from||games played||won||won USD||Winnings Even Money||Average bet size|
No loser above 100 BNB this week! That's only happened once since I started writing this blog. Maybe people are reading and getting advice on how to play responsibly... (looks at #1 loser)... okay that's certainly not happening. 10 bets, $50k in losses. That's gotta hurt, but that's what happens when you throw down 12 BNB per bet. This is the first time our friend showed up on this blog, but he has won in the past. His total losses are "only" 38 BNB, meaning he was up considerably before this week.
Most of the players are first timers on this blog, until we get to #4. He's coming on his 7th appearance on this blog (usually -- but not always -- a loser). His total losses are -378 BNB or around $190k.
His bet sizes aren't even that crazy. Betting 1.6 BNB into a pool of around 30 BNB isn't advisable, but I've seen a lot worse. He's just got bad luck I suppose. Normally I would advise he switch up the strategy to do the reverse of what he's been doing, but that doesn't always work. Because if you're losing on average 2% of your balance with relatively large bets, and you switch the strategy, you could still end up losing because the odds moved against you.
Anyway, it doesn't matter. We love our losers and wish him best of luck, even though it looks like he may be running low on funds.
And that's all for this week.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!