Market Update for Week 2022-03-07

Published: 2022-03-14

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Tether shorts

Pretty quite week in crypto. Not much really caught my eye. The same loser twitter accounts are cheerleading a 5-10% drop and claiming to be oracles, while bulls are continuing to "buy the dip". I'm neutral short term. Stability to me is positive and I try to keep an eye out on new applications.

One thing I did catch is a report that hedge fund Fir Tree Capital Management is taking a large short position in Tether. A few years ago I would have called this a smart play, but Tether has been scammy for so long. I think you would have to do a very detailed analysis of their actual holdings backing their tokens (lots of crypto and speculative instruments like Chinese commercial paper tied to real estate) and find the tipping point. Not only that, but you'd have to have a story about a precipitating event that would lead to the downfall.

I think betting against tether is a good bet (although one not available to everyone). But timing is everything and it's probably an expensive position to hold. Who knows how long Tether can hold on for. But I'm glad there is some downward pressure on the token because it is scammy. I recommend people explore other stable coins that are not scammy (USDC? Gemini's token?). I don't know, I haven't done the research. People think that Tether's collapse would cause a huge crash in crypto overall but I think the inverse is just as lucky. And who knows, maybe they can grow out of it. But it's a unique instrument because its necessarily capped at $1 per token, so only downside risk exists. But again, it's been hanging on for so long, no reason to think it can't continue hanging on.


Market was kind of slow this week with much of the week under 30 BNB and dropping to low-mid 20s rolling average over the weekend. I haven't been playing so I'm not sure if it had to do with network issues.

If you zoom out, you'll see volume has been fairly steady in 2022, which makes me hopeful that long run it can sustain a reasonable size. I would love the markets to grow in size so it can accommodate larger bet sizes without moving the odds. But I'll take what I can get (red lines are market pauses).

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size

We had our first big (100+ BNB) winner in quite a while (last one was end of January). Looks like the bad luck streak is over! Well.. not exactly. The other winners are fairly modest. Lets see how our top dog did:

Very large varying bet size. Round 52661 must have killed him. The close cell isn't red or green because the close price was exactly the same as the lock price = 370.88 (technically 37088000000). So many zeros! What happens when there's a draw? PancakeSwap takes the entire balance! I don't mind losing as much as I mind draws. It's really frustrating, especially when you have 11 digits to precision and Oracle chooses to often just round to 5 digits.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
30x5915b3bde351bc873566c868786eb4d5699d6f95461-89.68 -34,078.0-10.492.48
40x97e2c347c0bab3b830273fca2e7efb2a0e4260fa66-64.16 -24,380.0-9.922.99
50xfe0693ee9174e1d156942b3aa64348dd45962dfb208-48.25 -18,335.0-25.951.32
60x412a43e5ea5fb69668fd4e896337df2fab8f035386-46.56 -17,692.0-9.882.84
70x5c4226178babcd43ac3a2d913ef4862b72e4949a180-45.33 -17,226.0-16.972.46
80xe62a72c3e73f00bfb427cab9e439aa0ebd6752c324-39.74 -15,102.0-4.564.77
90x0ff14f1dbdea689e26e4fd698f80c22b627a3e9d407-38.94 -14,798.0-5.921.41

Big losers are back as well and almost all are algo bots. I've been saying this for weeks and sound like a broken record, but the games have gotten a lot harder. Strategies that worked no longer work (likely due to shadow trading), and overall a lot fewer people are making consistent gains. Even the winners are relatively new faces. I don't have a way to easily track related accounts, but my guess is the best accounts are cycling accounts. That requires a bit of leg work and complexity to manage so many accounts but I think you have to do it at this point.

Our #2 loser is somewhat regular, showing up 3 times so far in the blog (loser-winner-loser). His total record is 296 BNB in losses so far but his account is dry so he'll have to re-up to continue playing.

Our #3 was our top loser last week. We'll see how long he can keep the streak alive. Most of the other losers are first timers. Other than that nothing else sticks out.

Either way, nothing but love to all, especially our losers.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!