Market Update for Week 2022-03-14

Published: 2022-03-21

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Fake FURUs

The only thing more annoying than fake crypto FURUs pushing the latest shit-coin that came across their radar, are fake anti-crypto FURUs. These are almost always rich dudes from first world countries crapping over crypto. They just can't imagine why everyone just can't use venmo like him. He doesn't see the world outside of his own little bubble and derives meaning from being against something.

There are plenty of things I just don't find that interesting or worthwhile. For instance, I don't collect coins. I don't really see the value in it. But I don't base my whole personality on telling people interested in coin collecting how stupid they are. I try to apply the same reasoning for staying out of NFT flame wars. I have some issues with the space like deceptive marketing and rug pulls, but it's fine.

I came across this dufus on Twitter and for some reason it just triggered.

Just your typical rich bro from first world country pontificating about shit he has no idea about. I get it, he knows he can send money easily and cheaply to anyone, and assumes everyone can. But he also goes on this rant about how technology won't really help and we just need people to do manual jobs like plumber and roofer. I don't know the bro, but I'm pretty sure he's never had to fix a roof or repair a leak. And he doesn't know anything about material science or the fact that technology has made things like roofs a lot safer and durable. But who needs tech right? Just get on my roof and stop the leak!

But the best was his rant about how social media is harmful. He's literally a FURU that made a few million selling his blog. And now he sells his newsletter peddling advice like "be a plumber!" Here's 200+ LOW RISK business ideas. I wonder if one of the ideas is start a blog and spam social media about how bad social media is. Dude is so full of shit.

If you thought this bro couldn't possible have any more contradictions, his side business is ... wait for it ... flipping real estate. Ah yes, the boy king peddling advice about how to get a real job working with your hands is flipping real estate. And he'll tell you how to do it if you sign up for his newsletter ;-)

Solve real simple problems like not enough blogs and then change the world with that money by flipping real estate.

Crypto is full of scammers and it sucks because I really love the space and technology. But so is everything else. If you want to read more of my rant against all his shitty life-advice takes, check out my twitter. I wish I could see his latest hot take but he blocked me. Was it something I said?


Another slow week with 24-hour trailing balance below 30 BNB for most of the week. There doesn't seem to be as much excitement about the games.

I think this is due to the increased difficulty in the game. Fewer people are winning and those that are winning are getting their trades shadowed, lowering their odds until they're no longer winning. I don't know what's left to be done. I think some tweaks could improve the games, namely reducing the house take from 3% down to 1 or 2%. That means your dollar will last longer and you can play for longer. Also changing the rules so that the house doesn't take games that are draws (close price exactly equal to lock price).

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size

Similar story to last week. No crazy winners and the winners we did have just bet big and came up on the right side of the bet. Our #1 won 57 BNB, but if you look at his history, he's still down 2.5 BNB over his life.

Maybe just now he cracked the code, or maybe he just got lucky. From following these games a while, I'm betting on lucky.

Our #3 is interesting, winning 42 BNB with only 3 bets. He's 3 for 3 this week, and 4 for 5 during his life.

It's interesting that you saw him take such a long hiatus after game 2. He's since emptied his account and transfered some of it to a binance hot wallet and some more into various aggreegators. It looks like he keeps a lot of it in BUSD-T and doesn't really do much. He's associated with some accounts that played in the past, but nothing recently. Like I always say, games have gotten much more competitive and harder to win long term.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size

Our top dog is appearing for the fourth time on this blog. 3 times as a loser and 1 time as a winner (although only barely in top 10). His total losses over his life are 422 BNB so that's something. If you look his even money losses aren't that bad, but his variable bet sizing is working against him. He only lost 41 games (adjusted for odds) and has an average bet size of 1.85, meaning we should expect his total losses to be around 76 BNB. But he doesn't bet evenly and the bigger he bets the more likely he is to lose.

I don't know what to do with someone like that. But he plays a lot. 940 games is a lot. Note there are only around 2,016 games in a week, so that means he played almost half of every game. And his bets were all over the place, from 0.1 to 4+ BNB. Take a week off buddy.

Anyway, nothing but love to all, especially our losers.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!