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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
Prediction Primer Part 2
If anyone missed it, I released thesecond part of my prediction primer. It goes over some basic analysis based on just the round data from the contract itself. The TLDR is basically that betting on the underdog (position with the higher payout) used to be a surprisingly effective strategy until mid-December. Since then, it started losing money, probably due to people upping their bet size, new people using the same strategy or people shadowing other people's bets messing with the odds. Today the payout isn't a great predictor, and if anything the lower payout tends to perform better.
In future primers or posts about strategy I'll try to balance technical aspects with strategy. I'd like to go over how to query the contract through python as well as backtesting strategies that incorporate third party data.
Nothing really stuck out to me in the crypto space this week. The price has continued its steady climb and we're back to a m400s price for BNB which is always nice. Crypto tends to go up over weeks and down over days. We could see a 25% drop in a single day but it may take weeks to get back up to that level. But so far it has, and ideally it goes past the most recent high. Every time we have a dramatic price drop I do think "this feels different", but thankfully so far it hasn't been different. Hopefully we barrel on ahead again.
Action
We had a lot of action this week! Most of the week the 24 hour trailing average pool size was around 34 BNB. The biggest round of the week was 125 BNB (epoch 58269), which even scores in the top 20 round sizes of all time!
The big round of 125 BNB was almost entirely one account 0xaf298d945383be9341fdb0c2eef6bd639c4eebd3. This guy dropped 99 BNB on BULL, moving the odds of BEAR to 6.291. I'll let you guess what happened..
It wasn't even close! He lost it all. His prior history showed a bet size of 1-2 BNB. Large but not crazy. And all of a sudden he bets 100% of his balance. My guess would be that he fat fingered it. He was probably playing on the PS or BSC Predict front end, and accidentally selected 100% bet size. He's only down around 37 BNB meaning before the bet he was up over 50 BNB! Whoops!
That's a hell of a loss. I know I always say we love our losers, but this guy deserves a little extra love for that kind of loss. In fact, it was the 8th biggest bet in the history of the games.
| epoch | from | bet | value | payoff | Result |
| 5092 | 0x0ff14f1dbdea689e26e4fd698f80c22b627a3e9d | BULL | 250.93 | 12.7405180813569 | -250.93 |
| 39237 | 0x15843aef02decb46289889aad2dc637ac62180db | BEAR | 145.87 | 0.179237941080307 | 26.14 |
| 25064 | 0x639f8725237f11964301e69bc5449d0b7c4b6981 | BULL | 143.42 | 3.85214742974014 | -143.42 |
| 10702 | 0xe5671935340e5a4cc86bad424f0c74a931ba0342 | BEAR | 117.0 | 2.97371133965961 | -117.0 |
| 22809 | 0x7324b637f95691c652859deaa733f4d5c3f67103 | BULL | 100.0 | 0.529742731987339 | 52.97 |
| 22814 | 0x7324b637f95691c652859deaa733f4d5c3f67103 | BEAR | 100.0 | 5.48541778759166 | -100.0 |
| 17909 | 0xea1cebd819208434059afa05d436e26504025891 | BULL | 99.51 | 0.110834796895496 | 11.02 |
| 58269 | 0xaf298d945383be9341fdb0c2eef6bd639c4eebd3 | BULL | 99.05 | 5.10725114141862 | -99.05 |
| 8846 | 0x4caca0a7259d6dee600f121254fa580f41430137 | BULL | 92.37 | 0.241235475017189 | 22.28 |
As much love as we have for this guy, the GOAT has to be the guy who dropped 250 BNB (and lost) in the early games. He pushed the odds to 12x, one of the biggest payouts in history. The final round size was only 278 meaning he was was 90% of the pool, but the 10% that was on the other side of that trade had an epic payout.
Winners and Losers
| Place | account | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x92f4e06ff2317b31a1aa24ca01ba7a8e53a3d3f5 | 225 | 43.32 | 16,461.0 | 8.02 | 2.65 |
| 2 | 0x84f755e47d933e6c82608258f9ca2cbc70091018 | 130 | 33.93 | 12,895.0 | 8.18 | 1.65 |
| 3 | 0xee070f1eedd8843eb5eff7aedbdefa86eb73b1eb | 135 | 33.0 | 12,541.0 | 2.46 | 1.45 |
| 4 | 0x9b6b62ef7970896158d3e13f518ddbe4eb2a5c49 | 951 | 30.38 | 11,545.0 | 44.46 | 0.42 |
| 5 | 0x405c62254acfb43e73c913d8b1b85694b39f80f6 | 214 | 28.35 | 10,773.0 | 19.43 | 1.43 |
| 6 | 0x5bfdccaaffc7b9d3434a355bc5c731ef3eba51db | 164 | 26.04 | 9,896.0 | 20.34 | 1.44 |
| 7 | 0x52f7dd49640a45caae7ec1805465db47fbb15528 | 1491 | 24.56 | 9,335.0 | 64.47 | 0.46 |
| 8 | 0xad24c8fdea96f7b97db39b308990d2fd580d82e1 | 489 | 21.89 | 8,317.0 | 24.83 | 0.45 |
| 9 | 0x798bc384e20d5d16987a07487fc695985f1742c5 | 4 | 21.55 | 8,189.0 | 1.96 | 8.2 |
| 10 | 0x179742fbab4c102d86cd8cdb64d1a96f52abb1e2 | 129 | 21.03 | 7,991.0 | 1.22 | 0.89 |
No crazy payouts. I was expecting higher payouts since the increased volumes, but similar payouts to last week. We had only one whale that made the top 10, but even he only made 21 BNB. His total payouts are only 11 BNB so he was making back what he had lost in the last few weeks. He has since cashed out.
Let's look at the losers
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xb14f8e6762c3a6d0261ece86687dcdb5d93f5b6b | 142 | -183.09 | -69,575.0 | -3.7 | 8.69 |
| 2 | 0xd98faa5b3ed314b39732bf86d5286d8e7de4c819 | 85 | -76.57 | -29,096.0 | -12.53 | 5.48 |
| 3 | 0x89bb80b57a27fd30f00b47071c8344d9fca781e9 | 62 | -71.01 | -26,982.0 | -16.19 | 5.82 |
| 4 | 0x4393feb0660c3b1d644c53adcb060283c550b89a | 17 | -60.04 | -22,814.0 | -5.72 | 11.24 |
| 5 | 0x3b6d6d1b7aa126e6b7aa35881b305c685817e9c6 | 564 | -58.08 | -22,070.0 | -20.59 | 1.94 |
| 6 | 0x5a9390b08a7d8fb50ea8d51aac5bc39ecfdf2bc2 | 185 | -53.42 | -20,300.0 | -11.11 | 1.96 |
| 7 | 0x93dfdbc5c59fa70942949d93eafdf25d861bda94 | 504 | -50.33 | -19,126.0 | -26.16 | 0.95 |
| 8 | 0xe102ca8deda09d7f44bfa636fcd85864703803d8 | 85 | -48.51 | -18,434.0 | -14.92 | 3.77 |
| 9 | 0xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac | 213 | -47.81 | -18,168.0 | -22.83 | 1.08 |
| 10 | 0xa338d351c6d873df49a352b89c500ff23a26ccbc | 18 | -45.51 | -17,295.0 | -4.94 | 5.68 |
Woah boy, we haven't seen a loser like this in quite some time. Our top dog didn't have a history since this week and he came out swinging, losing $80k in just 7 days.
I tried to follow his account, but didn't find anything too interesting. Dabbled a bit in shit coins but couldn't easily find other associated accounts. Looking through his history, he had some solid runs. His bet sizes were all over the place though. You can tell because his even money winnings were only -3.7. This means that if he had bet 1 BNB on each bet, he would have been down -3.7, but instead his average bet size was over 8 BNB and some bets were over 42 BNB! This dude might have been responsible for the heavy trade volume this week! It's interesting to note though that he did not bet on the biggest round of the week (58269) as he had run out of money by then. Imagine if he did? We may have set a all time high round size!
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!