Market Update for Week 2022-04-04

Published: 2022-04-10

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Bitcoin Conferences

Apparently there was a Bitcoin conference in Miami. I wasn't there, but from everything I heard it was mostly people giving going up on stage and yelling at Bitcoin holders to buy more Bitcoin. I'm more bullish on Bitcoin than web3 in general, but its kind of depressing. The equivalent of a sweaty Steve Balmer and Microsoft gang going on stage and chanting DEVELOPERS, DEVELOPERS...

I get it bro. You own a lot of Bitcoin. Congrats. I too own some Bitcoin. When I get more money I might but some more. But if you talk at a conference, you should offer something more.

One exception was a speech by Peter Thiel. He's always interesting to listen to. I recommend his book Zero to One. It's a quick read.

He considers Ethereum a payment network, so not a real competitor to Bitcoin. He talks about Bitcoin as a leveraged Nasdaq stock, which seems about right, at least in terms of price movement. Thiel brings up that in the 1970s, gold and the equity market were about the same in terms of market cap, but obviously equities surpassed gold and are now maybe 100-1. He uses that same metric to discuss how we should consider the Bitcoin to equity ratio as opposed to Bitcoin to gold ratio often talked about.

I'm not sure what the take away from that is. Number go up? I don't know, but it does make sense considering crypto moves with equity markets, and it has not been correlated with inflation, as it has underperformed when inflation started shooting up.

Towards the end of the speech, Thiel announced a Bitcoin enemies list. I'll list them and some of the entertaining points below.

Warren Buffet - Sociopathic grandpa from Omaha. Someone like him is always talking his book. If you're a money manager, you have to pretend its complicated to invest, so naturally just buying Bitcoin sounds terrible to you.

Jamie Dimon - NYC banker type

Larry Fink - CEO of Blackrock. Most equity holdings today are held by ETFs like Blackrock. This means that people like Larry Fink have a lot of power in terms of forcing companies to do things. Fink has some "pro-crypto" quotes, but Thiel arguest that pro blockchain is an anti-bitcoin term, which I kind of agree with. The argument is that Bitcoin is the old thing, we need "blockchain" that I still have a change of controlling. Thiel argues we should push ETFs to hold Bitcoin.

ESG - essentially a hate factory. When you think ESG, you should be thinking CCP. The only companies ESG really hates is energy companies and Bitcoin. Because the rest are pretty much under their control and pay their penance. Going public is basically a government takeover where extensions of the state are given power. Bitcoin doesn't have this

In summary, you get a finance gerontocracy that runs the country through virtue signaling and hate factory on one side versus the youth on the other

It wasn't the most interesting speech I've heard Thiel make, and I think a lot of it was playing up to the "number go up audience", but it's worth listening to.


Volumes have come down from last week with much of the week's round sizes below 30. Nothing else really sticks out.

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10x0f4107e03d6ad34e781b13d806b9f881bbe47ad4 553 122.04 46,376.0 16.53 0.96
20xee070f1eedd8843eb5eff7aedbdefa86eb73b1eb 128 35.03 13,311.0 16.66 1.18
30xf2179e2c0860833b72d7b2ffaa7543aba6fc5a12 80 31.96 12,146.0 12.34 2.88
40x143f2648f6ac2270e4c5870ca7d052f64e2ce5e1 205 29.93 11,373.0 38.78 0.51
50x7dc1ef5bb9476e5e1dca0045a83e528fe7422449 317 28.27 10,744.0 22.39 1.01
60xf1ba0d51167abed2a7c9a410050e39a62eb74157 115 25.01 9,504.0 21.24 1.21
70xac97deaf1e372866120695498b7559635b208143 89 24.57 9,335.0 6.91 0.81
80x1163ae4790a21512f854403b6395991a3ac05066 235 24.28 9,225.0 27.51 0.47
90xcb524544d84b08d8f681f59033033f45b1e25c78 10 24.06 9,141.0 0.93 19.95
100x07f94990dacfe4eb646a587592db2bff3d4f9130 25 23.77 9,032.0 7.07 1.9

One big winner, but not an impressive record overall considering he's still down 80 BNB over his life.

He just had a few very big rounds. His even money and average bet size aren't that impressive. He won on net 16 games (adjusted for odds) and bet an average 1 BNB. But his bet sizes varied wildly from 0.1 to 30 BNB; not something I would recommend. My bet is we'll be seeing more of him in the coming weeks...

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xb4d2a30b29dc1a9d8b7ec522da59555afe3db991 214 -93.28 -35,448.0 -19.41 2.81
20xc008a0bfc32cbedd1c66688be60d26d81717e459 94 -83.73 -31,817.0 -16.42 3.69
30xd98faa5b3ed314b39732bf86d5286d8e7de4c819 22 -55.43 -21,063.0 -6.51 6.18
40xcf3fad79bb3080ff50b3c4721af88ee3a1ff1b58 145 -53.58 -20,362.0 2.43 2.91
50xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 438 -44.99 -17,096.0 -48.17 0.88
60xc4a9d922b0abf9a9c82f6a99f18fbe53164b3e1c 54 -41.77 -15,873.0 2.13 5.93
70x7eb317dcbb90f54d0ac624fdecef0da4df7b7b5c 94 -41.36 -15,718.0 -31.77 1.23
80x0ba4ffaa9f0f1962f69929011c092a819c31e6f4 157 -40.2 -15,277.0 -12.03 2.03
90x4e3599f69266d6edd21c00ae77019305c524d6f2 2 -40.0 -15,200.0 -2.0 20.0
100x93dfdbc5c59fa70942949d93eafdf25d861bda94 331 -39.24 -14,913.0 -14.54 0.72

Most of the top losers had huge bet sizes and paid the price. Our top dog ran out of money and bet his last 19.9898 BNB on 59143 to wipe himself out completely. At least he didn't re-up. Sending love to our losers.

Anyway, that's all I have for this week. As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!