Market Update for Week 2022-04-11

Published: 2022-04-17

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.


It's that time of the month, inflation numbers get announced, everyone knows its gonna be bad, it's bad and crypto bros do high fives. Meanwhile, crypto prices are flat as best and well off their hights. So what gives? We've been told crypto was a panacea for many things, inflation included. I have no doubt that this inflation is due to the trillions printed due to covid measures. But if you still think crypto will just double one day after a bad inflation print, you're mistaken.

To be fair, the inflation stuff is more Bitcoin. Ethereum doesn't even have a set monetary policy. It often changes and is tightly controlled. BNB also doesn't have seem to have a cap. It's fine in theory as long as the growth rate is lower than the fiat growth rate. But let's be honest, crypto is not a good inflation hedge.

Jack's first tweet

Jack Dorsey (founder of twitter) first tweet is on sale! It was purchased March 2021 ago for $2.9 million. So given that inflation is around 8%... and NFT market grew a lot... and crypto did well since then... the tweet should be selling for... checks notes ... $270.

Okay, that's not fair. It's gotten some bids since those juicy articles dunking on NFT bros. Top bid at time of writing is around $31k. It's still off 1% of its purchase price, but its better than $270!

It's even weird to write thw words "an NFT of a tweet". You don't own the tweet. You can't buy it and delete it or own it. Jack didn't even sell it! It's some random guy that said "I will make NFTs of tweets", took screenshots of a bunch of tweets, put them up on OpenSea, got them to give him a blue check mark and found some dude to blow a few million on a tweet of Jack.

I don't know. NFTs are one of the first things in popular tech I don't "get". The first social network I didn't "get" is Snap Chat. And I guess the first crypto use-case I don't get is NFTs. Maybe it makes sense to younger generation. But for me this was jumping the shark. Who knows...


Very low volumes this week. Usually I consider a 30 BNB pool size to be typical long run overage, but this week we had a 24 hour average pool size of 24 for much of the week. I think it was performance issues personally, but its hard to tell.

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10x0d7ed7771f33b4fe3728417eda0d9d895a9d7d078942.98 16,331.010.573.53
20x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e3265340.82 15,512.038.221.96
30xa57c7d8c914cf7a360d9de122e5cfd2de11d380e8533.01 12,543.025.261.84
40x2cd75f5494335c80760438b8dfca114f55a5ffb144129.53 11,221.021.511.08
50x7f9a64e9471fa5c855464ec5bdeb757cc13a8a3669628.12 10,684.060.920.32
60x73a80f8c0e62018889b736eb7963e40ae20da7ef16224.68 9,378.017.20.86
70xf9bdd2cca95a603c25a2e5f29ac87ae9fcfc96d891324.32 9,
80x4d9eded14307c78842df2d6a2e984992b3df280795323.17 8,805.053.10.3
90xf2179e2c0860833b72d7b2ffaa7543aba6fc5a129422.47 8,539.010.93.51
100x9e22d7641a7cfe6530df43ae5cbec3460120ab761222.33 8,485.04.824.07

Pretty low winnings this week. It's not surprising considering the volumes were so low. It is holidays for a lot of religions (Ramadan, Passover and Easter) so maybe its that? I don't know. Our top dog had a pretty solid run although he lost a few BNB prior to this week, so he's up around m30s. Big bets, not too many, and bet sizes all over the place. Not much to say.

Our number 2 is an algo player and made out well. Although his lifetime winnings are -120 BNB. Nothing too exciting or noteworthy

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xc46cf5e7a4d11b9f1f9c86c02ed5a7fc6a119c92313 -139.78-53,115.0 -35.56 2.59
20x0f4107e03d6ad34e781b13d806b9f881bbe47ad464 -83.41 -31,695.0 -7.09 3.39
30xf64b17861f98306659d256efb9212c1a49100ddf96 -73.06 -27,761.0 0.24 5.88
40x33e16b5d3c5952e1a84eb184b7b5056cac81a4af18 -62.17 -23,624.0 -5.27 9.94
50x5915b3bde351bc873566c868786eb4d5699d6f95197 -58.33 -22,167.0 -15.05 2.69
60xee070f1eedd8843eb5eff7aedbdefa86eb73b1eb103 -50.76 -19,289.0 9.44 1.26
70x977825a7240b405bad53e851b6c1a8722c2108fa42 -35.52 -13,498.0 -3.76 1.89
80xf59e0103e32eac5542212f25328cd3932b74cab872 -33.83 -12,855.0 -5.67 0.85
90x5e0672568e09178f3f7df52b2d2767105381571782 -32.15 -12,215.0 -8.56 1.72
100x0ff14f1dbdea689e26e4fd698f80c22b627a3e9d261 -31.56 -11,991.0 -24.75 1.33

Pretty big losses for our losers! I consider any week where someone loses over 100 BNB to be high, and our top dog eclipsed that amount. It's not his first rodeo either. He lost 150 BNB on market update from 2021-11-08. In total he's down 736 BNB or around $300k. It's a hell of a run but he's doing it slowly. He's played over 16k games!

These accounts are always funny because it's obvious they're using a bot. And they're okay playing for a long time. So why not just cut your bet size! Do it slowly! Your odds will improve and you might even go from a losing strategy to a winning strategy. And then just wait to play the next 16k games and dig yourself out of the hole. But no, this dude wants out quick. He keeps his bet size over 2 BNB, thinking the tide will shift at any moment. But it won't. Figure out the strategy then scale up slowly. And build clear measures and rules as to when to scale up or down. Don't let emotion drive you.

All that being said, of course we love our losers including this week's losers.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!