Market Update for Week 2022-04-18

Published: 2022-04-25

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Crypto Twitter Shill List

Sometimes I feel like the crypto community is like a child that keeps disappointing you. You still love the little guy, and there's a lot of good work being done, but then there's also this:

Zachxbt, an anonymous crypto researcher and self-proclaimed "on-chain sleuth," has published an extensive list of crypto influencers and how much they allegedly charge to "shill" crypto projects on Twitter

Here's the actual tweet:

I can't comment on the prices, because I don't follow this stuff closely. "How much is an effective shill worth" is kind of like asking "How many angels can dance on the head of a pin". I don't know! The prices seemed reasonable for the most part (few hundred dollars) but there was one outlier. None other than mean girl herself Lindsay Lohan is charging $25k for a shill and $20k for a retweet.

To be fair, she has 8.2 million followers (maybe the release of shill list juiced her followers). But compare that to someone like CryptoWizardd who charges $2k per shill. I only pick on the Wizard because I got a kick out of all the replies basically saying "et tu Wizard". The betrayal runs deep with this one.

So the wizard is charging 2k for 293,600 or $0.0068 per follower, while Lohan is charging 25k for 8.2 million or $0.003 per follower. Lohan is a bargain! But the audience of the Wizard is obviously more concentrated in crypto. But on the other hand, I'm sure Wizard has a ton of bots following his account because, you know, its crypto. So who knows. Maybe Lohan's prices aren't unreasonable.

I'm having some fun with this, but let's be real. Randos on crypto twitter are not your friends. They're shills. The absolute best case scenario is they're running a pump and dump with some of their own money invested. Worst case they're taking money from outright scams and have no skin in the game. Either way, they're sketchy af. The funny thing is we understand this when it comes to people like Cramer. If they knew anything they'd be trading and not shilling online.

At least crypto twitter shills are somewhat honest in that they don't pretend to rely on fundamentals. Next time you see a shill, just ask "what's unique about this shitcoin". No one would even pretend to have an answer apart from number go up.


Pretty big week! Volumes have shot back up and we even had one 100+ BNB round.

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xf202e8ad42d3fb034916c956fe9bc47740606833 212 47.19 17,934.0 7.95 1.46
20xaf4f7500da6d9162f7190d74ed2774a7946eb25c 79 44.14 16,774.0 20.37 1.82
30xad95919929685d0d250885e2b9ad951ac7060bf7 23 43.7 16,606.0 -1.1 9.14
40xd72bc67fd5f752917651345b3f6abe997eb676d3 390 38.18 14,508.0 50.36 0.59
50xe4aad0cab61b9a09db1d00cdaab87e933b5bce20 115 31.89 12,118.0 20.75 1.25
60xd78b31dcc6fdacc18b2c4d26bd76fc06d470575f 36 30.81 11,709.0 13.72 2.02
70x00bebe013ae404bdf630ad00539e41ed359ee877 750 30.12 11,444.0 42.33 0.54
80x0ff14f1dbdea689e26e4fd698f80c22b627a3e9d 171 28.93 10,993.0 26.24 1.14
90xabf2717bf3b6e591e7158c9587ce8fff133c968e 242 27.38 10,405.0 11.43 1.22
100xa4e97c7a4f632cd9cfb6735fb0a5db6df3b54c71 253 25.76 9,788.0 10.18 0.53

Another low earning week. Our top dog had a nice run but is new to the game but if you look at his winnings, you'll see most came in the end with a few very large well placed bets. He was betting 0.3 for most rounds and just amped it up to a bet size up to 20. It was a pathetic return too, only making 7.7 BNB on a 20 BNB bet size. A win is a win, but that's definitely not a risk I would be willing to take for a 1.4x return. My prediction is he won't stay on top for long. Don't be like this guy.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xc46cf5e7a4d11b9f1f9c86c02ed5a7fc6a119c92 549 -132.22 -50,245.0 -34.2 2.37
20x798bc384e20d5d16987a07487fc695985f1742c5 7 -115.24 -43,792.0 -5.37 21.59
30x9738f06d83a4f6508bef48f68620478651e98084 242 -90.73 -34,477.0 -32.15 3.27
40xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c9 123 -67.32 -25,581.0 -10.24 4.38
50xd628363f1121a656e91dc5ea9b43a76084e5e295 32 -46.91 -17,826.0 -8.05 4.75
60x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e32 296 -43.89 -16,679.0 -26.21 1.54
70xac8b3a152f8227fd76374c910c705940817039b3 182 -40.92 -15,550.0 2.53 4.0
80x63844d978799754de7d4e7401e9950ad70f62405 478 -33.35 -12,674.0 -25.94 1.22
90xc797f002cce52115ddca0a4e20c21e512e06ab87 61 -33.16 -12,602.0 -7.4 1.12
100x5915b3bde351bc873566c868786eb4d5699d6f95 191 -32.45 -12,330.0 -3.52 0.97

Two 100+ BNB losers this week! And one guy managed to do it in only 7 bets!

I think he just stopped playing because he ran out of money. He played a total of 122 rounds and blew it all on the last 7. Hell of a week if you ask me. He even bet in the 100+ BNB round, throwing in 35 BNB into the pot. I love seeing 100 BNB rounds. Anything can happen. It's rarely ever organic and is almost always a single player throwing in 20+ BNB. In this scenario, it's a solid bet to go in (SMALL) on the underdog. Because obviously the person throwing down large is moving the odds, so may as well use that to your advantage. In this case that strategy would have netted you a 2.2x return. Not crazy but relatively safe if you ask me.

Anyway, sending love to all our losers. Hang in there.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!