Market Update for Week 2022-05-30

Published: 2022-06-06

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

More Coinbase red flags

One of the biggest victims of the recent dramatic drop in crypto prices is Coinbase. In Q1 2022, their head count grew 33% from last quarter and they said they want to triple head count by the end of the year. But YTD their stock dropped 74%, so they pivoted and are rescinding offers they made. They'll likely have to cut as well.

We spoke about Coinbase before. Mostly about rolling over to a ridiculous measure in Canada that forces the exchange to dox you to the government if you send more than $1,000 CAD to the wrong person or group. Also how all the crypto they custody is not a senior claim in bankruptcy. In short, Coinbase isn't good for their employees, customers or shareholders.

What do you do when you happen to be in an industry that's going through a rough time and capital markets are shifting right under your feet? Trim the fact, focus on your core product and continue to deliver to your customers? No, that's silly. Instead you bring in a real-time workplace feedback tool where employees can rank each other after every interaction! It should boost morale and reduce the amount of internal politics! What could go wrong?

I give Coinbase a lot of credit for their policy of no-politics at work. Most people working at a large organization have seen the creeping influence of politics in their work environment and think its gone too far. I also enjoyed listening to the founder Brian Armstrong. He came off as humble, sincere and thoughtful. But pretty much everything I read about the organization since then has been awful. I get it, everyone is freaking out a little about the market, especially in the crypto space. But Coinbase should be working to build trust and fight for the industry, not this petty corporate BS. Also whose bright idea was it to try and triple head count in a year? How could that possibly go well?

People invest in Coinbase or other crypto exchanges because they want some broad exposure to crypto. It's true that the rise of crypto exchange prices is primarily due to growing crypto valuations. But their stock almost always under-performs crypto in percentage terms. So what are you getting? A beta < 1 and counterparty risk.


Volumes stayed up! Most of the week above 30 BNB. Can't complain about that. We even had 3 100+ BNB rounds

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xfd9ec821cd07cbc34e3df70af49a9c0cad22a4f8 31 97.18 29,153.0 9.29 9.03
20x08cf44ae51ceeab42e989b95d4eccf02fa0c478c 14 67.72 20,315.0 4.28 14.55
30xc2c58a2f0880351199822d4b58940fbd3e40f24c 338 64.88 19,465.0 -5.36 1.26
40x974c2e0dcd3ae9a12ed2224157f4eea61c7b3475 28 61.72 18,517.0 6.15 6.96
50xee156093c5069ee5752e169e4385e7a49d223310 28 55.98 16,795.0 3.97 9.07
60xe0b5455d4cfbaebc5cae43de2fa069bf943a62f5 100 37.26 11,178.0 9.12 4.1
70x5dbf4026e72f223d91ed4ab8da72f253b7019c37 322 34.44 10,331.0 35.45 0.87
80xbbd94b0332ab534dcb4c9440eb25382865cbdb8f 9 31.54 9,461.0 0.05 13.93
90x7aad54b5d19169164efb0da86d02d2904e703b9e 22 30.62 9,186.0 4.29 13.41
100x6d0e7c568a5724444939ad3032c50331138dc157 52 29.57 8,871.0 -4.19 8.86

Our top winner is a whale. In fact, the top 2 winners are feeding the same aggregator as our top winner last week. Looks like there's still alpha to be made. The person behind this is running a sophisticated operation. He's funding the accounts from hot wallets, so you can't shadow his trades as the account keeps changing and theres no way to link the accounts to the aggregator. It's an expensive strategy because moving money into and out of binance could result in a taxable event, but with that kind of money, its probably worth it.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10x6b7c0c3dd332876c0cf41310a739e713de9199c3 271 -151.19 -45,356.0 -37.69 2.75
20x3db2af670b0549545c164dbd7192b4911705c424 22 -149.1 -44,731.0 -6.81 16.9
30xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c9 384 -115.01 -34,504.0 -8.89 4.44
40x8537884f7afeb99c15be5f8e53d575eeaa1e476f 23 -111.33 -33,398.0 -3.24 17.27
50x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e32 461 -98.37 -29,512.0 -46.42 1.49
60xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac 593 -79.22 -23,767.0 -36.57 1.47
70xc0bd221dc8bd58446d53b6043fadf8ec45cf5316 372 -61.25 -18,375.0 -28.74 1.68
80xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 1223 -55.06 -16,517.0 -65.66 1.4
90xd600d38d463ffbba2b18251bcba93089833cc6b8 99 -52.99 -15,896.0 -12.38 1.29
100x62168f9911a84e08994720ee803f3ef2707bfeb0 15 -51.13 -15,339.0 -8.53 6.7

Another big week for losers! In fact, our #2 and #3 losers are linked with our #1 and #2 winners. Same pattern of trading, other transaction quirks and feeding the same aggregator. I guess it makes sense, to win big you gotta lose big.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!