Market Update for Week 2022-06-20

Published: 2022-06-27

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Bottoming out

This week was our first up-week in a while with Bitcoin and Ethereum recovering 6% and 11%, respectively. BNB is even up 12%. This all sounds great but percentages are a funny thing. If you're down 10% and then up 10%, you're still down 1% (100 -> 90 -> 99). So you should really look at logs. And log-wise we're still not looking great. Here's Bitcoin:

There's a lot of turbulence in the market right now. This is the kind of time where fortunes get made. Or at least everything gets setup to make a fortune down the line. Bitcoin was started during the height of the 2008 financial crisis. Airbnb was started at the very bottom of real estate. There are many other examples, but now is the time some people are getting a team together and putting down the foundation for something that will only be visible years from now.

Or you know, I'm wrong and crypto never recovers. That's certainly a possibility and not even so remote. I don't know what that would mean. Bitcoin and Ethereum below X? Major crypto exchanges shut down? Draconian bans on mining? I don't know but crypto may never deliver anything meaningful again. It looks like we're past the easy money phase, and let's be honest a lot of blockchain shit is a lot better served as a centralized service. No one is clamoring for censorship resistant service. I personally like that I can get my money back if someone steals my credit card.

Stable coins are a failed experiment for the most part since no institution can withstand the pressure of printing money out of nowhere or putting their reserves in increasingly risky investments, hoping to eek out a slightly higher yield. Crypto likes to re-discover a lot of the lessons of traditional finance, and none is more powerful than the principal–agent problem. If you have someone (the principal) managing other people's money (the agent), the principal will put their own interests above those of the agent. Throw in grift and anonymity and its a disaster waiting to happen.

Anyway, Sam Bankman-Fried from FTX, is providing a credit facility for BlockFi, a crypto exchange.

At this point, pretty much any deal with BlockFi is good news because the alternative is that they go bankrupt and depositors lose all their money. It's also good that the proceeds are subordinate to all other accounts. So if things go belly up, FTX is not a senior creditor to depositors. In return, FTX received an option to buy BlockFi for practically nothing. Additionally, FTX has purchased another troubled exchange, Bitvo.

I think this is the phase of crypto where you're going to see a lot of consolidation. It might still all collapse, but this is the time where you separate the wheat from the chaff. Exchanges that are lean and have their shit together are eating up exchanges that managed to lose money in a historic bull market. It's still not clear what will happen to other players like Coinbase that overextended, but they're shrinking rather than expanding. I imagine they'll be pushed into obscurity. Either way, the space will be exciting to watch in the next few years. I personally welcome the collapse of less reputable fly-by-night crypto operations. It looks like the grownups may finally be taking over.


Volumes are pretty steady, but obviously with lower price levels, they're down considerably in fiat terms.

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0xd4ca0490df68d1b2e4e85cf940ff9eeaac999999 54 58.4 12,147.0 6.63 6.43
2 0x289b1068d85823d4b4a57ec93d3e29bb6a9db9fd 103 48.89 10,170.0 29.38 1.39
3 0xf6152ae9e8d5003cc29856b1ffeb2166317fa30e 93 42.67 8,876.0 10.89 2.6
4 0x086dfd8a0dbc16f33d4ec8039b37aefab3ac3368 56 38.49 8,006.0 6.16 2.75
5 0x9dcce34c1c280fcbb119c89f5b40809cfa355dc3 533 37.84 7,871.0 56.38 0.7
6 0xd5a6d5b08e94445417e71434593c42d72d432f42 69 35.17 7,315.0 -1.21 8.19
7 0x685c5c7817a27c2e65aa8383514edecb898c8888 351 32.61 6,782.0 19.93 0.58
8 0xcbf7c6085fcb7829f87bc0a4b48d6843f8169376 88 32.42 6,743.0 18.52 1.12
9 0xf5c37d9b674e874be3b41c60d8815555edd150b1 9 32.3 6,719.0 12.42 2.1
100x3e50e14ea9efff226408e62d91b5703bca030292 1118 26.75 5,563.0 33.42 0.63

Same trend is continuing. A few high rollers are doing well. Nothing too our of the ordinary.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xb1ae5d25f229d405d9bbf77a7a140c1ad2e4b580 21 -97.78 -20,339.0 -4.68 7.01
20x2d08dce495c326a2df39df1d4952569811de85b0 149 -88.02 -18,308.0 -20.07 4.84
30x9a46d348e04edc3fd3b40c91ddbddfd6a1012133 176 -83.45 -17,358.0 -20.31 4.38
40x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e32 866 -81.78 -17,010.0 -43.38 2.45
50x0119c6746b409cf72dd23fad004d70a7a62add75 97 -81.01 -16,849.0 -22.41 3.86
60xf9334a8b5e54581cf272f24a685583be9d0de9df 149 -79.54 -16,544.0 -8.49 6.55
70xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 932 -70.56 -14,676.0 -44.42 1.13
80x47f8876b32ac209c4d6b36f33e45e9da15593e11 184 -56.91 -11,838.0 0.35 4.44
90x4d7366f9f6c10091b53c4898b342d0cb719caa1c 195 -54.62 -11,361.0 -26.47 1.74
100x47c50987774965b4685fabbce599e7d3ce481932 53 -41.74 -8,681.0 -8.58 3.63

As usual, our biggest losers are considerably bigger than our biggest winners, but that's just the game. That 3% tax really hurts, especially the algo players. And of course the biggest difference is the bet size. Losers bet way too big, but you already knew that ;-)

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!