Market Update for Week 2022-07-25

Published: 2022-08-01

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

I'm back

Hey guys, its been a while. I got caught up in some personal stuff and haven't been able to update the last month. I'll be honest, doing weekly updates is a bit exhausting, and I can't promise I'll release an update every week. It's especially tough when I haven't been following the games or even crypto that much recently.

Things have calmed down in crypto land, and the expression "crypto takes the elevator down and the stairs up" seems to be holding true. Over the last month ETH has climbed around 60% (~1,050 to 1,660). Bitcoin didn't perform as well, only gaining back 15%.

These numbers make it look like crypto is doing a lot better than it actually is. It's important to note that if you got down 50% and back up 50%, you're still down 25% from where you started (e.g. 100 -> 50 -> 75), so you should really look at logs. And lets be honest, crypto is still hurting.

But it's not just about the price, but the enthusiasm. Even the haters have backed off because its boring. I guess that's a good thing. I've always said I wish the hype would die down a little and let good applications be built. I am a bit surprised at Bitcoin's under-performance compared to ETH and BNB, at least in the rebound.

I saw FTX introduced stock trading.

They're still one of the most interesting companies to follow in the space. I have mixed feelings about the CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, and I still haven't used their product, but it looks like he's delivering.

I just started listening to Lex Fridman podcast featuring the Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, so I'm sure I'll have comments on that in the next week or so.


Volumes kind of fell off last few weeks but prices are up which is good. We haven't touched 30 BNB average 24-hour trailing round size in a while.

Winners and Losers

Note that these are winners and losers from the last 3 weeks.

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0x7774e54add14fcc807d1ecc86e4c346eb9133bb0 2,393 58.35 12,137.0 71.69 0.3
2 0x06c8828fc57af6647edb6b15da73a75f5397786e 2,198 45.15 9,391.0 115.52 0.32
3 0xbe00210b167c25558b032aa88f78c06454ea1cba 2,453 43.85 9,120.0 112.42 0.33
4 0x61580a281cf0f6eb03dcc93cd1271d361026806e 210 43.37 9,022.0 39.79 1.02
5 0x7bd3541c73c45bae3427020b76342270f26fbd7e 140 36.8 7,655.0 1.39 5.63
6 0x6bf09f8c8bd17d5f5428ada05057f9aabe69b64e 94 35.95 7,478.0 14.77 0.85
7 0xbfa3608981e8dc53ef037237859593d17f5a42a4 370 33.28 6,922.0 31.91 1.23
8 0xdb06da5990dcc8295c389d24f4cb9e249116b068 399 31.67 6,587.0 22.69 1.08
9 0x97e0b1948b3b2d6f2a1c287a72ac5dd0a0dee5b9 420 30.54 6,352.0 3.67 0.52
100xa4e6e1d5b0d2fdbf6baf18c2adb5e37df972a654 1,022 28.61 5,950.0 11.95 0.13

I thought top winners would be bigger considering that I combined three weeks of action, but they're not! I think that's because today's winners will be tomorrow's losers and thing kind of even out. Someone could have a really hot week, then people catch on, start shadowing his trades, moving the odds, or his luck just ends which results in losses the following week.

We also have relatively low volume, and honestly it'll likely get lower because no one is consistently winning. The top guys seem pretty disciplined though. A lot of games and a reasonable bet size. The top dog has a lot of experience. He's played over 21k games! And he's won 75 BNB in his life, meaning he averaged 0.003 BNB net winnings per game. That's a lot of work and a lot of ups and downs. 77% of his profit came from the last 3 weeks, which means he either "figured it out", or he'll just revert back to the mean and give most of it back over the next few months.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac 953 -229.77 -47,793.0 -26.27 3.63
20x6020a29fc5ba916b22568817eceaefd940b4f0d7 732 -201.18 -41,845.0 -32.94 3.08
30xd820b68e7c4e822692a805567f4b57e832730533 1330 -152.97 -31,817.0 -19.51 2.1
40xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 2546 -136.57 -28,407.0 -111.95 1.3
50x69e5d58023e5e36604c9407593198cb9229e6cf9 138 -119.88 -24,935.0 -19.01 6.25
60x53a50c476ef3c84132a9803e1ee167659715d838 905 -119.69 -24,896.0 -77.47 1.05
70xe9f971a510747118eaffb1bf78411eace3102a31 571 -103.45 -21,518.0 -48.44 2.51
80xfaded83f9cab5f8975ca34395c01c3e455ffdb93 1792 -80.42 -16,728.0 -63.05 0.91
90xf6152ae9e8d5003cc29856b1ffeb2166317fa30e 40 -74.3 -15,454.0 -7.33 5.23
100xab4dc696d2bf74446ba6ceb414cd3741a95035ae 954 -70.3 -14,622.0 -49.42 1.1

Some things never change. Big losers tend to be more consistent at losing. But note that just because they're losers doesn't mean their strategy is bad! Finding a "bad" strategy is good, because you could just reverse the signal and you're in the money! But sadly, that doesn't work, because bet size moves the odds and fees take a hit. So the worst strategy is a random strategy. That'll guarantee you lose money consistently. My hunch is that these players are just betting more or less randomly (trading on noise, no signal), which makes their strategy the worst of all.

Anyway, as you know, we love our losers. That's it for this week. Hopefully I'll be able to update more regularly but weekly is going to be tough.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!