Market Update for Week 2022-08-01

Published: 2022-08-08

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Lex Fridman interview with Brian Armstrong

I mentioned last week about an interview with Brian Armstrong I was going to listen to and comment on, and boy was that a mistake. I don't have high expectations from Lex Fridman at this point but the interview was awful. To be fair, I couldn't make it to the end, and tapped out at around 1:40 in the 2:30 conversation.

I had to keep checking that the interview was recent. He doesn't say when it was recorded but it was released on July 29, 2022. He doesn't ask about the recent crypto drop. Since the beginning of the year, most crypto is down around 50%, I would think that's something to bring up. He also mentioned a Bitcoin price hypothetical of 40k so it was probably recorded long ago. He should have stated as much. Honestly kind of a dick move.

Even the timing aside, it was an awful interview. He asked stupid questions like "do you consider Coinbase a layer 1, 2 or 3 technology?". And then Lex would go on to muse at the answer. Lex would also constantly interrupt and ask stupid questions like "what is a wallet" or "what is blockchain". He was trying to be clever or draw out interesting insights but it just disrupted the conversation. It was just awkward and grinded any normal conversation down to a halt.

The one interesting thing was when Brian described crypto regulations. He said from his interactions with US congressmen, maybe 30% are openly hostile to crypto and the rest are open to it and want it regulated. Those numbers were flipped just a few years ago. 56% of American adults have bought or owned crypto, so it's a growing demographic. On the surface its positive since politicians can't be openly dismissive of the technology. But it's also bad because, let's be honest, most of those people got burned. When the shoeshine buy is giving you stock tips, you know its time to sell. And we had peak crypto when we had celebrity laden crypto commercials littered throughout the superbowl. That was our shoeshine moment, although the big (?) crash took a few months to happen.

Something else Brian talked about is how crypto shouldn't be lumped together in terms of regulation. Some crypto is closer to a commodity, which is a store of wealth. Some other crypto is more of a payment system. And other crypto is more art. So there may not be a one size fits all classification for crypto. Personally I would like as little a touch as possible, but I do admit that the scams were out of control.


Volumes are still down, even briefly dropped below 20 BNB on a 24 hour rolling average. Although they did shoot up mid week.

The trend is more obvious if you look at longer time-frame.

Winners and Losers

Note that these are winners and losers from the last 3 weeks.

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0xca73a09dba59136922d4ac3dd9f2ba77083d46c6 461 57.8 12,022.0 16.53 0.48
2 0xe105aff83e176cdc3e6e833af56f375c30f730b3 138 34.0 7,072.0 14.02 1.45
3 0xf6751a8f40667a8f80b780bef97d3757cfe7c1b9 158 33.19 6,904.0 26.1 1.23
4 0x3644d5bb8fdf6219adac7ef11eea8193a5305642 188 30.55 6,354.0 38.31 0.81
5 0xdc3da200c5bbc21ac6661a15443beac95a2f4a67 573 22.65 4,712.0 58.72 0.34
6 0x18b31f860cfddae82e6851553c1fdd0e0b3deaab 693 22.59 4,700.0 19.37 1.74
7 0x75f549a7005e656504fb391b9bea1df8982e1f67 413 20.17 4,194.0 36.12 0.4
8 0xda4053870a6bedf2cd909c65dbf9abb298d260a8 265 18.26 3,799.0 12.81 6.65
9 0x89bb80b57a27fd30f00b47071c8344d9fca781e9 61 17.21 3,580.0 5.76 2.83
100xb521396fc2cb081c6990b9652dd845d366798eb8 661 16.96 3,527.0 41.05 0.39

We got a few decent sized winners this week and they look like they're algo bots. The top dog pulled in an impressive 57 BNB this week, but he's still down 41 BNB over his lifetime (7,867 games played)

I usually praise the algo players because let's be honest, if you're betting large and winning, you're just lucky and that luck will eventually change. If you really do have an edge you'll play often and bet small. But you should also consider their even money winnings. Even money winnings normalizes the bet size to 1 BNB. If an algo-bot played 460 games, and only won the equivalent of 16.53, that means their edge is 3%. That's solid but it could easily shift. It's just a very thin margin to play long term.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10x6020a29fc5ba916b22568817eceaefd940b4f0d7 164 -165.49-34,422.0 -30.17 4.95
20x13e5eb83d3c87d03f09ab09fedb493561bcfb9ca 174 -163.1 -33,925.0 -9.02 5.08
30xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac 206 -86.37 -17,966.0 -40.11 1.99
40x967a9c0ab80b9bf6a6e92dd33dffb4acd78de4d1 729 -66.39 -13,810.0 -21.82 1.19
50xd820b68e7c4e822692a805567f4b57e832730533 472 -64.3 -13,374.0 -26.35 0.98
60x851a390e7a62d909f3a0d0099196152f10403f86 100 -62.7 -13,041.0 -11.97 3.7
70x5dbf4026e72f223d91ed4ab8da72f253b7019c37 406 -47.87 -9,957.0 -3.82 1.19
80x7f9f833f28ae5f5afa7a9714c9958cde3ec6f7aa 272 -44.78 -9,315.0 -12.4 2.14
90x75eb3737964d057852f01804a697af7983a7174a 118 -42.08 -8,752.0 -12.62 4.9
100xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 346 -32.5 -6,761.0 -35.19 0.95

Our #1 loser was #2 last week, so he's moving up the scoreboard. His last week losses were 200, but that was over 3 weeks. He kept things going and blew another 165 BNB this week for a total loss of 364 in his life.

Our #3 loser was #1 last week, and his lifetime losses came out to 1,136 BNB over 6,362 games. I'm glad he's keeping things going. I would love to hear the story. What is going on? Is this some money laundering scheme? How would that even work? Maybe you're just priming the pump, some account belonging to PancakeSwap. His even money losses are 312 over 6,362 games, meaning his "edge" is -4.9. PancakeSwap takes 3% and since he's betting ~2 BNB, his action is purely random, otherwise surely he would flip his strategy. It's just very curious that someone can blow nearly half a million dollars on these games and continue to play. And not just play, but maintain a bot to execute his dog shit strategy. At least in a casino you're pulling the slot machine arm and entertaining yourself while losing money. This guy automated it.

Anyway, I wish the best of luck for our losers. We love them so much.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!