Market Update for Week 2022-09-12

Published: 2022-09-19

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

ETH Merge

So the ETH merge finally happened. I'm not a big fan of proof of stake (POS) and prefer Bitcoin's proof of work (POW) but I'm glad Ethereum ecosystem pulled it off. PoS is too similar to the current economic model we have, where the people with the money have undue influence on the rest of us. With PoW you can join the system at any point through energy expenditure and you can leave just as easily. It's more democratic.

But since the merge, ETH has been down. It's down over 22% in the last week. I think there was a lot of money piled into it immediately prior to the merge on the hopes of it having a pop once the merge occurred. Anyone following this closely knew there was little risk of the merge going poorly. There was a PoS branch running parallel to the main branch for over a year now and this has been many years in the works. And there was always a chance for a dividend in the PoW branch which didn't do so hot. Fast money got into ETH right before the run up to the merge and has since exited, dropping the price to levels last seen in July. This unfortunately brought down other crypto prices.

I think (hope) the worst is behind us and the opportunistic players have exited leaving only us bag holders. I don't try to game these things so I haven't touched my crypto allocation. In fact, I haven't touched it in over a year.


I know I sound like a broken record but volumes are down and it doesn't look good

The 24 hour average pool size dropped below 15 over the weekend. It likely coincides with a drop in crypto prices due to a missing ETH pop. It's really not good. Throwing money into a 10 BNB prediction pool is really bad. Even with a modest bet, you're really moving the odds.

I don't know if PS guys are going to do anything or just let this thing die on the vine. No one has yet reached out to me but hey, at least if they kill the games I'll free up some time from writing this blog.

Winners and Losers

Again, you can see weekly winners here and the weekly losers here.

PlaceAccountGames PlayedWonWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0x2e4c5c4b0b7c6b8c02d3c30cb59629d01ec8f074 84 61.6787 15.1109 3.6158
2 0x663f97ac76ce3d830f24f8f55a5be664912b14b1 118 30.4697 17.0532 1.2530
3 0xd8b53f94144b5bad90b156ecca28422c26c08e6c 877 20.6917 46.4373 0.3067
4 0xf6ed886951427deb2332e767729c225980061e3a 18 18.9088 4.1350 3.2161
5 0xd820b68e7c4e822692a805567f4b57e832730533 712 16.8679 2.2432 1.5811
6 0x020a6ac31de5fd4f647e566e595d055e03cb07fc 117 15.8847 20.9077 0.7882
7 0x72fedba512282777f43b420b7175908507d1c0e5 337 15.6540 38.0749 0.2496
8 0x66387c31a07ebf63b5c00df759fe22dc2233e339 126 15.5159 3.6608 0.4477
9 0x952ba4856f38b252dcae809d5f3bed1e25c45c8e 395 14.9541 8.6452 1.2491
10 0x46c3082c8206176d99e6a9a94e957963884dbc5f 360 13.2204 26.4407 0.5000

Our top dog is appearing on the blog for the third time. His first appearance was 2022-01-31, at #10 then again on 2022-07-11 at #3 and now he's #1.

He's been playing a lot and had a hell of a run this week. He's up 113 BNB over his life of 3k+ games, more than half of it made in the last week. He bets big, which is all the more impressive considering volumes went to shit this week.

Our #2 just had a good week. He played over 1,200 games over his life and has ~13 BNB to show for it. So yeah...

Let's see how the losers did...

PlaceAccountGames PlayedWonWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10x5616ee15a593dab14dfcac05055c58f23f560e05 263 -122.4264 -32.9972 2.2242
20x6b9fe3914be2fdc7f871798e6886d4f8bad9fe3a 15 -66.7277 -7.6105 7.7639
30xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 889 -62.7933 -52.9260 0.8320
40xed7ab48dbfb82099bad5f26831c3a051c8ff2f4a 112 -41.5352 -13.8837 1.7074
50xf82f5368b7200b8d5344703ce1590d95f5a47477 541 -39.9525 11.6110 5.9840
60xad24c8fdea96f7b97db39b308990d2fd580d82e1 287 -37.6278 0.5659 0.8861
70xa8c6a4f811e137fc1d66a3cf69118b8e3db989b5 211 -34.7422 -26.3640 0.6073
80xf0e03ef0079251c906ee6fa05d28037291f8a651 632 -31.8016 -38.4840 0.7625
90xd57051fa3cd71d5607a9650dab726f3313477145 285 -31.3065 -33.0128 0.9487
10 0x5dbf4026e72f223d91ed4ab8da72f253b7019c37 137 -29.9987 -26.5087 1.2393

Our top loser is returning champion. Two weeks ago (I was off last week), he lost 216 BNB. This week he only lost 122, so by the logic he should be flat next week and up 100 the following week. He's down 600 over his life so he's got some catching up to do.

Our #2 loser was doing a modified Martingale strategy. I cannot stress this enough, but do not use this "strategy". It doesn't work. You're picking up nickels in front of a bull-dozer.

Martingale or not, we love our losers.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!