Market Update for Week 2022-09-26

Published: 2022-10-03

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Do Kwon on the run

A good rule is to never believe a rumor until its officially deined. On September 17, Do-Kwon claimed he was not "on the run".

I like how he put "on the run" in quotes, as though its so preposterous and alien that he has no idea what it even means. Restricting comments is also a huge 🚩. I wrote about him before. It is pretty obvious he's running a scam. I'm skeptical of the very nature of algorithmic algo-coins and their track record has been pretty shit. It's just a bad proposition. Best case scenario, the token is worth $1, worse case it's worth $0. Not much upside.

Now throw in a loud mouth arrogant personality like Do Kwon and it gets even worse. To top it all off, his stable coin already imploded, and less than a month later he's ready to roll out a new one with pretty much the same economics, kind of like a reset. And I thought fiat guys liked running the money printer.

Well sure enough...

South Korean authorities told CNBC on Wednesday that they have asked two cryptocurrency exchanges KuCoin and OKX to freeze more than $60 million worth of bitcoin linked to Do Kwon. Kwon is the founder of Terraform Labs, the company behind the algorithmic stablecoin terraUSD or UST and its sister token luna, whose $60 billion collapse sent shock waves through the market. South Korean authorities have sought Kwon’s arrest and claimed he is on the run. Kwon has insisted that he is not hiding.

He's one of those guys that the more you read about the worse it gets. Okay, he's a loud mouth and lavish spender. I guess he's also a bullshitter. And he was self-dealing on top of that??

I never understood this kind of behavior. You literally manage to sell a money printer, making millions for yourself knowing damn well it's going to blow up. But that's not enough. You gotta let it ride and siphon off more tokens during the collapse and try to run the same scam again. It's like the politician cheating on his wife... with some intern from the office... and buying her gifts using campaign contributions. Where do you stop??

Anyway, obviously crypto is still hurting and everyone is avoiding it. Bitcoin enthusiasts like Pomp dropped the laser eyes and any reference to Bitcoin from their bios. Now they're just "curious". And I'm fine with all that. I get it, a lot of people built their entire identities around crypto, and people aren't stupid. They remember you pumping crypto at levels 3x what they are today. So no 10% bull market is going to make up for your clown behavior over the last year.

Overall I still think its a good thing. We need less crypto "personalities", but the reality is in a few years, we'll have forgotten about all the bad calls and reckless behavior and crypto will hopefully somewhat recover. And when it does it will bring a whole new batch of opportunists and scam artists.


Volumes are still down. Much of the week was spent at a 24-hour trailing average pool size under 20 BNB. Like I've been saying, it doesn't look good for PS predictions.

Winners and Losers

Again, you can see weekly winners here and the weekly losers here.

PlaceAccountGames PlayedWonWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0xbaea4d74fe243adefc8387d9c78772e68163abc3 154 139.2707 35.7432 3.5618
2 0x75bca6108cd1c62b3257248fd124385b02192997 174 138.3253 32.0707 3.3453
3 0x0df58d858792992fd9c3bbef07a93111e3b105a1 104 90.8473 22.0236 3.3380
4 0xee5af98b35e14d9ea3eb0f899429a7ad558dcede 63 73.5205 11.6995 5.4667
5 0x241dd7da7cf7e8753c79076aa5324ba809cde7d5 11 23.8225 4.3651 2.6736
6 0xda412c59e0683d3da4e61dd607f2cfc9911856eb 128 19.7886 19.8460 0.8778
7 0x284a84b612665d158604aa8b8840f6fda8046d93 122 15.7877 12.4250 0.9262
8 0x5a8f627d6aaa81dd96c14e3aa5cba789ce00206d 33 12.7716 12.3148 0.9199
9 0x483621e9266a760650ecaa31a8a3bc1ff7eec37c 211 12.6067 14.9129 0.6032
10 0x2af88f97c1919158f988c6a05e410653b1e0377e 109 12.3725 5.4338 1.8787

I'm surprised we got some big winners this week. This is the first week in a while we've seen a number of winners over 100 BNB. It's a little early to decipher whether the accounts figured out a new secret sauce, but I'm skeptical mostly due to the large bet size. If you're betting an average of 3 BNB into a sub-20 pool, you gotta be very confident just because the odds move a lot. The winners aren't repeat players so it's something to keep an eye out for.

Let's see how the losers did...

PlaceAccountGames PlayedWonWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10x712fdd09ac64d5776077e2b813fcd1b0431f5278 127 -49.5246 -11.6345 3.7994
20x3d3251e4fe944941f69264bad2d6d914aa80587f 72 -43.4269 -14.3578 3.5572
30xe75938fa4c8f16b549f54e79e44c7826dedda693 106 -36.0409 -16.9079 1.3345
40x0ccc9ae3d044baf66ddcc1faeffb96f0c4d31d10 552 -33.4206 -13.6175 0.7567
50xad24c8fdea96f7b97db39b308990d2fd580d82e1 119 -32.9453 9.3183 0.7767
60xa172da45d45b0ce6c46ec25dcf866c145f0f0e33 447 -32.7946 -25.4568 0.5585
70x5616ee15a593dab14dfcac05055c58f23f560e05 89 -30.0322 -16.9002 1.5921
80xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 717 -29.8526 -43.1969 0.5885
90x99d34c5da61752e5fa94e74c012706824b647a53 17 -26.4102 -8.7308 2.6220
10 0x6f404d87268d09ac2d8409108f64e7495e57cef3 66 -22.9853 -9.7184 1.2591

Losers weren't that bad! No loser over 100 BNB which is surprising. Just some guys on a bad streak. The losers aren't even repeat losers.

By the way, if you happen to have an account with a lot of losses and you figure out some secret sauce that will finally yield some wins, my advice is to keep the same account! People monitor accounts very closely and info on loser accounts is just as valuable as info on winners. The idea (usually a bad idea) is that you can bet the opposite of a loser account. This is bad advice because losers tend to bet randomly, so their losses aren't a signal for what you should NOT be doing. They're just noise. But regardless, some people try to bet the opposite of loser accounts. And if you're one of those loser accounts, it works to your favor because they're helping your odds by going the other direction. Of course its important to remember, once you start winning, make sure to cycle your accounts ;-)

But you know us, and we love our losers...

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!