Market Update for Week 2021-11-15

Published: 2021-11-22

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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Rough week

We had a run up in crypto over the last two weeks with BNB entering November are around $530 only to rise to over $650, before coming down a bit to low-600s end of last week. This week we saw the price drop considerably, to as low as low $500s, but it came back up towards the end of the week and ended in the high $500s.

It's always tough to watch as you see your balance dropping due to no fault of your own. It's just a reminder that you should limit your exposure to any one crypto. Even if you're doing well on prediction markets, you should regularly cash out.

The (shit) Graph

We've also seen issues with The Graph which PancakeSwap (and until recently BSC Predict) uses to an extent. Its a service that lets you query prediction data, such as individual rounds and all the bettors on those rounds. It's been on and off for a while and almost always well behind live data, but it just stopped reporting anything this week. You can see (at time of writing) PancakeSwap leaderboard just spins out indefinitely .

I was using The Graph for BSC Predict history page, but I moved that away, so it should be working now.

It's a bit frustrating considering how popular prediction markets have been. I had a post on it this week, and long story short, PancakeSwap brings in around $3.5 million a month from predictions alone. I can't imagine how much they bring in for the other shit they really seem to be pushing. I don't understand why they wouldn't just invest in building out a proper backend to aggregate and query bet data. On the other hand, if they had a functional site, BSC Predict probably wouldn't be a thing.


Adding to the shit-show with The Graph, we had a number of stoppages in predictions this week. It's honestly quite embarrassing at this point.

210212021-11-16 08:38:32
210222021-11-16 09:56:51
210352021-11-16 23:36:35
211612021-11-18 01:16:19
211622021-11-18 02:50:09

Volumes were a bit down from last week but nothing dramatic, although the 24-rolling pool size was well below 30 for much of the week (red lines are paused markets).

2021-11-21 Prediction pool size rolling average

Record Setting Payoff (sort of)

One good thing about this week was a record setting payoff on epoch 21022 with the winning bulls paying 54x return. If that epoch looks familiar, it's because it was one after 21021, which was paused. The bull and bear amounts were only 0.064 BNB and 3.56 BNB, respectively. However, all three transactions errored out and no one won or lost.

It's interesting to note though that rounds immediately following paused markets tend to be very light volume. That's bad if you're looking to push weight, but its good in case someone else puts down a large bet and you're able to take the other side with a relatively small bet and get a crazy payout. But that means being vigilant when the market is paused and anticipating the action.

Other big payouts of the week included

EpochWinner PayoffStart TimeBear AmountBull Amount
207445.3071892021-11-15 07:20:415.31899723.782988
211664.5921602021-11-18 03:10:4715.6670594.195576
216224.5418202021-11-19 18:21:556.47756323.852261
211024.4438772021-11-17 05:21:488.50038030.442549

Now on to everyone's favorite part, this week's winners and losers.

Winners and Losers

I thought last week was impressive, with 0xa5d had an impressive run of 55.95 BNB in a single week, but this week, we had a 0x219 blow him out of the water with a run of 74.18 BNB or ~$42k in a single week.

fromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
0x2191fdccd0567daaaea6c917b6f3574280dd5b0528 74.18 42,284.49 5.99 5.70
0xbdb5829f5452bd10bb569b5b9b54732001ab5ab930 51.30 29,242.97 4.21 8.63
0x07af9539ed55080698714fc8238a35739e85ae1432 51.13 29,147.22 2.11 10.53
0x64e7bf9f4477f9057211ebf0c143ee3fe5cf68ce202 50.33 28,690.71 31.45 1.6
0x7f9f833f28ae5f5afa7a9714c9958cde3ec6f7aa501 36.94 21,056.69 15.04 1.66
0x41a923f3b5915baa17589dca095336545b40cd07121 34.31 19,557.50 22.79 1.15

Of course the bet sizes were out of control. 0x219 had a few good rounds but it was just reckless in my opinion. But hey, at least he knows when to cash out, to a ... checks notes ... account that has $360k in BNB. Okay this guy knows what he's doing...


As always, we have to give it up to our losers, and this week had its fare share. Our biggest loser topped last week with a total loss of 280 BNB or ~$160k

fromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
0x63bec1ee4c1454b5e7ed57e328e9cd7ac505b7e695 -280.66 -159,981.37-15.408.48
0xefc4476012054e657e26375ec6aa3d29096cf36f216 -114.58 -653,14.71-6.474.64
0x8f16d689964a5e334e43f85e599f348551948342230 -109.61 -624,78.58-36.982.59
0x24828065d65f67c5f9ea0c1999da3af1ca12313745 -88.15 -502,51.04-17.175.00
0x3587c544257fb2cb7b044352137ed15ba0efa13b228 -59.41 -338,68.73-12.061.04
0x5e071b4ff18b7616497111616a7dc71d350c889b135 -58.41 -332,99.17-11.043.56

0x63b is an unsung hero as he has donated over 317 BNB to the games. His wild bet sizes and terrible timing help drive payouts and allow even the least sophisticated player throw down on some whacky odds and occasionally come out ahead. For that, we at BSC Predict salute you. 0x63bec1ee4c1454b5e7ed57e328e9cd7ac505b7e6

That's it for this week. I'm still working on releasing a python trading bot, so look out for the in the next few weeks.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!