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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
CAKE Lottery
Happy new year!
I'm happy to announce that we released CAKE lottery this week. You can read more about it in the blog post on the issue.
New Years Action
We saw good volume leading up to the new year, followed by a very sharp drop off on new years day and a slight uptick since then. It makes sense.
I was expecting some large payoffs this week as whales dropped fat bets but the largest payoffs were relatively small rounds, and they were relatively tame.
| epoch | winner_payoff | epoch | start_time | bear_amount_eth | bull_amount_eth |
| 32451 | 4.436076 | 32452 | 2021-12-31 03:44:39 | 13.589716 | 48.559780 |
| 32374 | 3.825359 | 32375 | 2021-12-30 21:07:31 | 7.551253 | 22.228393 |
| 32436 | 3.781662 | 32437 | 2021-12-31 02:27:30 | 10.996770 | 31.875465 |
| 32452 | 3.615591 | 32453 | 2021-12-31 03:49:48 | 31.570238 | 11.575158 |
| 31664 | 3.528218 | 31665 | 2021-12-28 08:07:24 | 11.602338 | 30.599287 |
Not much else to report honestly. I didn't see anything too crazy this week, which was a bit of a relief for once. But I guess that leads to a boring market update? Well, we'll always have winners and losers!
Winners and Losers
| Place | account | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xfcbe1b9a24127fdcf915cbcb351d4f63724fa248 | 31 | 218.94 | 124,830 | 9.49 | 18.45 |
| 2 | 0x498a5dd28eb31ef0758810af39f438247b58fc59 | 32 | 150.86 | 86,070 | 7.88 | 8.28 |
| 3 | 0x637c0c0009a1e698b462322181efc18b1b0734d8 | 14 | 67.34 | 38,190 | 4.66 | 10.07 |
| 4 | 0x0959124002c58961be75d9fcfe0842f92e67ee2b | 422 | 43.13 | 24,510 | -9.22 | 2.18 |
| 5 | 0x4bf98d82a0f70385a490380b468223d99b8c309a | 5 | 40.08 | 22,800 | 3.64 | 11.0 |
| 6 | 0x5a69c14f4f0e9407f800f7b765cae3796ff3224e | 80 | 38.99 | 22,230 | 13.26 | 2.68 |
| 7 | 0x5a9390b08a7d8fb50ea8d51aac5bc39ecfdf2bc2 | 126 | 38.89 | 22,230 | 12.86 | 3.65 |
| 8 | 0x5e071b4ff18b7616497111616a7dc71d350c889b | 72 | 35.76 | 20,520 | 8.72 | 4.22 |
| 9 | 0x63a30b15251b55f60629a9e38920ddcad5c6feae | 365 | 29.54 | 17,100 | 0.32 | 1.16 |
| 10 | 0x123c501d2c6797b71ee8152ef7c0ca7129fd7082 | 288 | 23.42 | 13,110 | 31.02 | 0.67 |
I had to do a double-take when I saw #1, but the numbers are legit. It's a hell of a run. He made it to #2 on the leaderboard in just one week of betting.
He had an epic string of very large bets (between 10 and 40 BNB) and won nearly all of them. Even the ones he lost early on (32159 and 32162) he only lost be 0.01 and 0.03 respectively. Meaning it could have easily swung his way.
After a crazy run, he just pulled back, made a number of 1 BNB bets (and mostly wins) and cashed out. He converted it all to USDT and walked away.
#2 (0x498a) has a similar story and there's a big overlap with his bets and those of #1, but not 100% overlap. He could have been cloning his trades, but I don't see how he would have known the expected return considering he didn't have any history prior to these games. Or #1 could have been following #2 but the same thing would be true.
Generally I think a solid strategy would be to find people dropping huge bets and going the other way since usually large bets move the odds such that any alpha is gone and actually the reverse bets become profitable. Either way, here's #2 in all his glory.
Let's see how the losers did
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xea1cebd819208434059afa05d436e26504025891 | 546 | -115.23 | -65,550 | -16.12 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 0x02437089d6e452b41f1c4a585260191f5b2794eb | 587 | -85.85 | -49,020 | -17.35 | 1.47 |
| 3 | 0xfb0ec12b750b8972488e1e9660a90515b88f4792 | 694 | -57.97 | -33,060 | -72.47 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0x39b35d67dceb86ee4fe22f465993c9e4e121c48b | 129 | -53.7 | -30,780 | -13.42 | 1.77 |
| 5 | 0xaffb9821885947dcef0ce979763f18b3ea89b478 | 84 | -52.72 | -30,210 | -5.26 | 4.36 |
| 6 | 0x89c206030df4747e332680f4c1f5bc6fea81f006 | 139 | -51.01 | -29,070 | 7.85 | 1.83 |
| 7 | 0x89c526544dea19bf3e6bfb7f81c108c54bcbdc90 | 62 | -49.92 | -28,500 | -14.66 | 4.4 |
| 8 | 0x7f9f833f28ae5f5afa7a9714c9958cde3ec6f7aa | 446 | -43.16 | -24,510 | -15.23 | 1.83 |
| 9 | 0xa1469b3ad38ac8a7720475b6abefb05f3d115ae9 | 31 | -38.77 | -22,230 | -8.65 | 3.28 |
| 10 | 0x71996de61c2e428e31d045ca8d3226b26a40cd6b | 144 | -36.15 | -20,520 | -2.66 | 0.6 |
Most of our losers this week were bot accounts. I can only assume they were since there are only around 2,000 games a week, and playing 500+ games in a week would be very difficult manually.
Our #1 loser (0xea1) is a regular with over 2k bets in his history and losses amounting to ~183 BNB. He's been on both sides of the winners and losers but unfortunately for him, this week he's a loser and a big one at that. I would recommend he reduce his bet size as, from my experience, a bet size of 2 BNB really moves the market.
For instance, suppose you have a round that's evenly split 15 BNB BULL / 15 BNB BEAR. The net payout would be 1.94 for either (30 * 0.97 / 15).
Now say you want to bet 2 BNB BULL, the new payout is 1.82 (32 * 0.97 / 17). So before your bet, your win rate would have to be 51.5% for the bet to be profitable (1 / 1.94). But with a 2 BNB bet size, your win rate would have to be 54.75% (1 / 1.82). That's a big difference!
I notice a lot of people that play prediction are obsessed with bet sizing, but for the wrong reason. They think they can make up losses with ever increasing bets. But your win rate is actually independent, so you shouldn't vary bets based on your history. Instead you should consider how your bet size moves the odds, especially when betting large and betting into a shallow pool. Figure out what your expected payoff needs to be and make sure your model is at least that accurate.
The other big losers this wee were algo bots with large bet sizes. There's been a purging of algo bots recently and they're no longer profitable. I can't confirm this, but I think a lot of it has to do with growing bet sizes and players following profitable bots, worsening the odds for everyone.
And that's all for this week. Happy new year again, and there's a lot more to expect from BSC Predict in the coming year.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!