Market Update for Week 2021-12-27

Published: 2022-01-03

Subscribe to receive an email every time a new post has been published.

All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

CAKE Lottery

Happy new year!

I'm happy to announce that we released CAKE lottery this week. You can read more about it in the blog post on the issue.

New Years Action

We saw good volume leading up to the new year, followed by a very sharp drop off on new years day and a slight uptick since then. It makes sense.


I was expecting some large payoffs this week as whales dropped fat bets but the largest payoffs were relatively small rounds, and they were relatively tame.

epochwinner_payoff epoch start_timebear_amount_ethbull_amount_eth
324514.436076 32452 2021-12-31 03:44:39 13.589716 48.559780
323743.825359 32375 2021-12-30 21:07:31 7.551253 22.228393
324363.781662 32437 2021-12-31 02:27:30 10.996770 31.875465
324523.615591 32453 2021-12-31 03:49:48 31.570238 11.575158
316643.528218 31665 2021-12-28 08:07:24 11.602338 30.599287

Not much else to report honestly. I didn't see anything too crazy this week, which was a bit of a relief for once. But I guess that leads to a boring market update? Well, we'll always have winners and losers!

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xfcbe1b9a24127fdcf915cbcb351d4f63724fa248 31 218.94124,8309.49 18.45
20x498a5dd28eb31ef0758810af39f438247b58fc59 32 150.8686,070 7.88 8.28
30x637c0c0009a1e698b462322181efc18b1b0734d8 14 67.34 38,190 4.66 10.07
40x0959124002c58961be75d9fcfe0842f92e67ee2b 42243.13 24,510 -9.22 2.18
50x4bf98d82a0f70385a490380b468223d99b8c309a 5 40.08 22,800 3.64 11.0
60x5a69c14f4f0e9407f800f7b765cae3796ff3224e 80 38.99 22,230 13.26 2.68
70x5a9390b08a7d8fb50ea8d51aac5bc39ecfdf2bc2 12638.89 22,230 12.86 3.65
80x5e071b4ff18b7616497111616a7dc71d350c889b 72 35.76 20,520 8.72 4.22
90x63a30b15251b55f60629a9e38920ddcad5c6feae 36529.54 17,100 0.32 1.16
100x123c501d2c6797b71ee8152ef7c0ca7129fd708228823.42 13,110 31.02 0.67

I had to do a double-take when I saw #1, but the numbers are legit. It's a hell of a run. He made it to #2 on the leaderboard in just one week of betting.


He had an epic string of very large bets (between 10 and 40 BNB) and won nearly all of them. Even the ones he lost early on (32159 and 32162) he only lost be 0.01 and 0.03 respectively. Meaning it could have easily swung his way.

After a crazy run, he just pulled back, made a number of 1 BNB bets (and mostly wins) and cashed out. He converted it all to USDT and walked away.

#2 (0x498a) has a similar story and there's a big overlap with his bets and those of #1, but not 100% overlap. He could have been cloning his trades, but I don't see how he would have known the expected return considering he didn't have any history prior to these games. Or #1 could have been following #2 but the same thing would be true.

Generally I think a solid strategy would be to find people dropping huge bets and going the other way since usually large bets move the odds such that any alpha is gone and actually the reverse bets become profitable. Either way, here's #2 in all his glory.


Let's see how the losers did

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0xea1cebd819208434059afa05d436e26504025891546 -115.23 -65,550-16.122.3
2 0x02437089d6e452b41f1c4a585260191f5b2794eb587 -85.85 -49,020-17.351.47
3 0xfb0ec12b750b8972488e1e9660a90515b88f4792694 -57.97 -33,060-72.470.8
4 0x39b35d67dceb86ee4fe22f465993c9e4e121c48b129 -53.7 -30,780-13.421.77
5 0xaffb9821885947dcef0ce979763f18b3ea89b47884 -52.72 -30,210-5.26 4.36
6 0x89c206030df4747e332680f4c1f5bc6fea81f006139 -51.01 -29,0707.85 1.83
7 0x89c526544dea19bf3e6bfb7f81c108c54bcbdc9062 -49.92 -28,500-14.664.4
8 0x7f9f833f28ae5f5afa7a9714c9958cde3ec6f7aa446 -43.16 -24,510-15.231.83
9 0xa1469b3ad38ac8a7720475b6abefb05f3d115ae931 -38.77 -22,230-8.65 3.28
100x71996de61c2e428e31d045ca8d3226b26a40cd6b144 -36.15 -20,520-2.66 0.6

Most of our losers this week were bot accounts. I can only assume they were since there are only around 2,000 games a week, and playing 500+ games in a week would be very difficult manually.

Our #1 loser (0xea1) is a regular with over 2k bets in his history and losses amounting to ~183 BNB. He's been on both sides of the winners and losers but unfortunately for him, this week he's a loser and a big one at that. I would recommend he reduce his bet size as, from my experience, a bet size of 2 BNB really moves the market.

For instance, suppose you have a round that's evenly split 15 BNB BULL / 15 BNB BEAR. The net payout would be 1.94 for either (30 * 0.97 / 15).

Now say you want to bet 2 BNB BULL, the new payout is 1.82 (32 * 0.97 / 17). So before your bet, your win rate would have to be 51.5% for the bet to be profitable (1 / 1.94). But with a 2 BNB bet size, your win rate would have to be 54.75% (1 / 1.82). That's a big difference!

I notice a lot of people that play prediction are obsessed with bet sizing, but for the wrong reason. They think they can make up losses with ever increasing bets. But your win rate is actually independent, so you shouldn't vary bets based on your history. Instead you should consider how your bet size moves the odds, especially when betting large and betting into a shallow pool. Figure out what your expected payoff needs to be and make sure your model is at least that accurate.

The other big losers this wee were algo bots with large bet sizes. There's been a purging of algo bots recently and they're no longer profitable. I can't confirm this, but I think a lot of it has to do with growing bet sizes and players following profitable bots, worsening the odds for everyone.

And that's all for this week. Happy new year again, and there's a lot more to expect from BSC Predict in the coming year.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!