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All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.
WAGMI
Well boys, it looks like we made it. 2 weeks post crypto-crash of the quarter and we're inching back up. Bitcoin is up over 40k, ETH is just around 3k and BNB is in low 400s. Even CAKE moved up a little bit although its still dog shit. This has been my experience with CAKE.
I don't like how PancakeSwap can with a straight face advertise thousands APRs of 10,000%+ and people think, gee that's a good bargain.
Stupid high APRs on crypto 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩 https://t.co/kuskDMifwO
— bscpredict (@bscpredict) January 6, 2022
Speaking of CAKE, it looks like PancakeSwap team is looking to introducing a CAKE prediction contract which is ... good?
Anyone fancy a new version of #PancakeSwap prediction game, but in $CAKE? 👀
— PancakeSwap 🥞 #BSC (@PancakeSwap) February 5, 2022
I wish they would create an ETH or BTC contract over CAKE. It would be especially annoying if they made you use the CAKE token to bet. I get it, they want to pump CAKE, but it's just a huge pain in the ass and no one wants to hold CAKE. It's a huge occupational hazard when the price goes down 25% every month or so. They can bullshit about the "tokenomics" all they want, but like nearly every other shitcoin, it just doesn't provide any utility and will go down over time.
PancakeSwap is making millions every month on these games. You don't need to pump your shit coin. Just stick to BNB token denominated games and let people predict on something they actually care about rather than their shit coin.
Action
We had pretty steady volume in the games over the week. 24-hour rolling balance has been hovering in the high 20 BNB balance, which is okay. I'd like to see it higher but there appears to be a floor of ~25 BNB that has held all year. It also helps that we've had a lot fewer pauses. Here is the two week 24-hour average volume:
Our biggest round was around 100 BNB on (epoch 42480 - UTC 2022-02-05 00:41:46) and we had a few in the 90s. The best payoffs were a couple in 5x and a bunch of 4x.
Winners and Losers
Last week we saw a something quite unusual. The leaderboard was filled with whales that hit nearly 100% of their bets. And they were all controlled by one account. My original analysis led me to the conclusion that they would have to be manipulating the games as a 90%+ win rate is unreasonable for so many rounds. So let's see what happened since them:
| Place | account | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x3533d109ad6c79eec50706a2c56aefdddfa4ef57 | 14 | 71.2 | 40,470.0 | 8.52 | 7.86 |
| 2 | 0x71996de61c2e428e31d045ca8d3226b26a40cd6b | 270 | 38.94 | 22,230.0 | 9.17 | 1.25 |
| 3 | 0x32b50ce2fc55e948416c2436a9a2aaf50e07ad6b | 21 | 32.09 | 18,240.0 | 5.3 | 5.31 |
| 4 | 0x66a7c053b5404e5e610ca8ac830ce6531be0a98d | 38 | 29.1 | 16,530.0 | 9.61 | 4.21 |
| 5 | 0x3f25846f0a8b373da450efabb3988581428209b8 | 477 | 27.95 | 15,960.0 | -32.23 | 0.24 |
| 6 | 0x29994ac07eaeeb507e63de1f304dbca8037b32e1 | 1008 | 27.02 | 15,390.0 | 46.06 | 0.39 |
| 7 | 0x63a30b15251b55f60629a9e38920ddcad5c6feae | 449 | 21.26 | 11,970.0 | 63.66 | 1.2 |
| 8 | 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 | 799 | 20.31 | 11,400.0 | 14.25 | 1.49 |
| 9 | 0x65e83f2e32e4f9a04abdaa900ae824be49154dd6 | 623 | 18.98 | 10,830.0 | 73.12 | 0.5 |
| 10 | 0x20f0f462a8496c8cead9b192e5b806302a086787 | 118 | 18.08 | 10,260.0 | 21.08 | 0.85 |
#1 had a nice run winning 71 BNB in 14 rounds. The winner eventually closed out and transferred the funds to 0xeFce36Efcf3E13840634D71145Caf850fe6B2e15. If that address looks familiar its because he was our #3 winner from last week!
Same is true for #3. So far, that one account has pulled in at least $500k in the last 2 weeks through his various shell accounts and I still suspect something fishy is happening. It may be more because I'm not capturing the smaller accounts.
#4 seems to be independent but I honestly didn't look that closely.
Let's look at the losers
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0x58fd7c3018378228d30d824c0636e401e9102558 | 348 | -320.25 | -182,400.0 | -13.7 | 3.89 |
| 2 | 0x3b6d6d1b7aa126e6b7aa35881b305c685817e9c6 | 386 | -51.63 | -29,640.0 | -21.27 | 2.09 |
| 3 | 0x670410893e82f42b752cbc8cfd765306fe27284b | 155 | -49.85 | -28,500.0 | -17.21 | 2.24 |
| 4 | 0x9e6db84c9719850a411ab890f7604700132b42cc | 41 | -36.14 | -20,520.0 | -17.72 | 2.14 |
| 5 | 0x9b225dcbc17eb87e3c0143d6c35d8805167e087e | 294 | -33.71 | -19,380.0 | -16.41 | 0.9 |
| 6 | 0x4d298ff9b99ef53de95aa7e7a5a733191cb02028 | 46 | -32.64 | -18,810.0 | -15.55 | 2.1 |
| 7 | 0x7155c73bc99878050c9ccf89be4f3aa87442bab1 | 89 | -32.42 | -18,240.0 | -27.72 | 1.06 |
| 8 | 0x536489badc360199a63ede21d19bbe5c7c395c71 | 3 | -29.99 | -17,100.0 | -3.0 | 10.0 |
| 9 | 0x557c6862a7d0cd654f66ae0a2a39277d043c88b3 | 84 | -24.75 | -14,250.0 | -6.42 | 2.21 |
| 10 | 0x6690f5f1b4e248ea8f63f6e9845fe1731e6a1661 | 19 | -24.44 | -13,680.0 | -5.87 | 2.85 |
We have a record loser! With a weekly loss of 320 BNB, this is the biggest loss since I started following the games. There were a few 200+ BNB losses in November, but this is the first time we reached 300 BNB weekly loss. And it wasn't just a single few YOLO bets, it was persistent.
I'm not 100% sure it was a bot, but considering the consistency and number of rounds played, it's likely. Someone might have configured their bot with an aggressive round size, full account and just let it run loose.
The best practice for running a bot is to create a separate account for each bot, only fund it what you're willing to lose and monitor carefully until you're 100% sure you know what its doing. Start betting small. If your strategy doesn't work with a small bet size, it definitely won't work with a large one. You should also transfer money out regularly in case it hits a solid run and there's some bug that has you give it all back.
Anyway, the other losers are rather un-remarkable. Not a bad week for the losers, apart from our top loser. But hey, nothing but love.
And that's all for this week. Hope to have more good news to report from crypto land and hopefully we'll be seeing 600+ BNB prices very soon.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!