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More pain
Hey guys. I wasn't too plugged in this week. Anything I miss? Let me just checkout CoinMarketCap quickly and... oh my god...
Yeah, so all crypto continued its nosedive and we officially broke $1k on ETH and $20k on BTC. BNB did relatively well by only losing 20% of its value at time of writing. Actually, much of the shitcoins fared better than Bitcoin and Ethereum this week, a break from the trend we've been seeing. I held on to hope that Bitcoin will fare relatively well and the shitcoins will just pretty much go to zero. It would be a kind of clearing of the underbrush. And that may have been what was happening as people dumped their shitcoins, but this week it spread to a more pessimism about the major players in crypto.
This happens from time to time in crypto. But it feel different than last time crypto dropped 80% but I don't know if we'll get back to those levels this time. The crypto run-up started in end of 2020, around 6 months into lockdowns and right around the time the second stimulus checks went out. This was the same time as the meme stock craze. All rules about investing were thrown out the window. Bitcoin was less than $10k for much of 2020 and within 6 months it peaked at mid 60k.
There was some talk about "institutional money" in Bitcoin, but it was all bullshit. Some banks wanted to give clients exposure to Bitcoin, and some did. Some opportunistic hedge funds opened up as well and charged people 2 and 20 to hold Bitcoin futures. But overall the entire market was retail. Robinhood made the majority of their money on crypto since it had higher fees. There's a saying that when the shoeshine boy starts giving you stock tips its time to pull out. This was cryptos shoe-shine moment.
So will it recover? All other time crypto prices fell off a cliff they managed to recover. But I don't think that's possible now just because the volumes that are required. The pump was fueled by stimulus checks and increased access through Robinhood, Coinbase and other exchanges offering crypto. But a lot of these companies pulled back and may not ever recover. And there's little chance people are going to wind up with an extra few thousand dollars in their pockets any time soon. So I don't think this bubble is reinflating any time soon.
I think the technology still has a ways to go, especially level 2. I think stablecoins are a failed experiment as we've seen that the opportunity for fuckery is just way too high. My belief is we should use Bitcoin as a base layer, and build level 2 on top of that to facilitate fast cheap transactions. Incorporate that into defi-games or gambling. But the current defi landscape is untenable. It's way too complicated and rife for abuse.
Or, maybe listen to Cathie Wood that wants to... reinflate the bubble through easy money policy.
The Fed seems to be worried more about its legacy than the economy: it is ignoring deflationary and dangerous signals. Relying on lagging inflation indicators like the CPI, Fed Governor Waller is calling for another hike of 0.75% in July.
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) June 19, 2022
Inflation isn't a real threat. The real threat is the threat of my portfolio being down over 50% in a few months! Think of all the jobs that'll be lost when I have to liquidate my fund!
Action
Solid volumes again. It might by because the price has dropped so much that people adjusted their bets up to bet the same fiat amount. Or maybe not. Maybe there's a renaissance in the games and more people are playing. Not that it matters really. Pancake Swap is probably reeling from the drop in crypto prices. They're probably retracting. I see that they introduced perpetual futures a while back. Only problem is they don't have the juicy bets I would like to make like BTC-CAKE. That way I could bet CAKE will under-perform BTC. But why would PS create a product that could put downward pressure on their shitcoin?
Winners and Losers
| Place | account | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xaf0bfd47cb9ca6a787e48fbf2438d808def336a9 | 76 | 57.91 | 12,045.0 | -4.58 | 6.72 |
| 2 | 0xa817fc84c86aebf1085218bf8ade261e1b921518 | 87 | 52.31 | 10,880.0 | 8.61 | 5.12 |
| 3 | 0xa6c2223e351254a4168b37f25a85206ee77c8121 | 12 | 47.93 | 9,969.0 | 8.41 | 4.58 |
| 4 | 0xe57793f463bd19225c0c3f44d61ee268678d4eb7 | 339 | 32.04 | 6,663.0 | 3.9 | 1.34 |
| 5 | 0x509a1a5d729736815a922c20a94beb823de6b9ed | 154 | 30.72 | 6,390.0 | 10.55 | 1.62 |
| 6 | 0x57810a910835f6eedfbfe08a9fe605fe788fe2fc | 41 | 30.67 | 6,380.0 | 2.05 | 4.75 |
| 7 | 0x2b00dc724c461a29fa7d21036ee274cef78b8bf3 | 11 | 29.1 | 6,052.0 | 3.79 | 5.99 |
| 8 | 0xfdfbfd4e1a9047e5e0f8ccbb4b065c324e5d1f7c | 18 | 28.68 | 5,966.0 | 4.66 | 5.33 |
| 9 | 0x69de1e6a05ebcc6112756139b8141fcc6e5fd70b | 209 | 27.72 | 5,765.0 | -7.66 | 1.63 |
| 10 | 0xfd7a3ce693646a325cc87bcd61ccaa3beceff952 | 153 | 27.45 | 5,709.0 | 12.31 | 1.82 |
Our #1 is weird. Bets all over the place, ranging from 0.0024 BNB to 20+ BNB. Even money he was a loser, but he hit big with some big bets so he tops the leaderboard.
I'm now always on the lookout for our favorite aggregator. And sure enough, he takes the number 2 spot for this week with an impressive haul of 52 BNB in just 87 bets. Again he's funding his accounts through Binance hot wallet to avoid anybody shadowing his trades. Smart guy.
Let's look at the losers
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 | 1099 | -181.1 | -37,670.0 | -93.78 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 0xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac | 402 | -106.1 | -22,069.0 | -25.31 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0x34890f282f698bac63be94971f711a6496e4788f | 306 | -100.39 | -20,882.0 | -17.88 | 3.49 |
| 4 | 0xb32bfa4daa60e5e0941d0ffe589720375e76ba10 | 20 | -72.47 | -15,073.0 | -5.05 | 8.62 |
| 5 | 0x1fdad7bc32d227da174bb6f35c28a5a1837b73e5 | 24 | -69.1 | -14,372.0 | -7.57 | 7.25 |
| 6 | 0xf7158d79a9939b880cc79dac9492a466d9d587a0 | 557 | -66.71 | -13,875.0 | -0.75 | 3.77 |
| 7 | 0x75977e22f0e662c9f116b1b8a47b6941cf64deac | 241 | -64.0 | -13,313.0 | 1.54 | 3.27 |
| 8 | 0xf12b6d25694a2b1c4c0533600ba8d0d47e6f3e48 | 152 | -57.91 | -12,045.0 | -5.81 | 4.19 |
| 9 | 0x22f34a0ddd74559b30a96b4b5b88b0cf26866c76 | 23 | -55.52 | -11,549.0 | -3.01 | 9.82 |
| 10 | 0x7bc5dd5040310c91a303729104ef3561c16c86e3 | 17 | -45.84 | -9,536.0 | -6.71 | 7.16 |
The lose that just can't stop. Our #1 loser this week just cracked 1,000 BNB total lifetime losses over 17k games. He's been featured many times on the blog and continues to deliver. On our recap on 2022-05-22 he was #4 all-time loser having lost 711 BNB.. I'm happy to report he's shot up to 2nd place. Here is the all time loser leader board
| Place | from | games played | won | won USD | Winnings Even Money | Average bet size |
| 1 | 0xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c9 | 3320 | -1,751.76 | -364,366.0 | -162.59 | 5.67 |
| 2 | 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 | 17605 | -1,023.6 | -212,909.0 | -756.45 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0xc46cf5e7a4d11b9f1f9c86c02ed5a7fc6a119c92 | 20617 | -959.61 | -199,599.0 | -650.6 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac | 4652 | -820.68 | -170,701.0 | -243.87 | 2.46 |
| 5 | 0x32a7ca42d196289518b03fbb5ecfc4f5f3505bb9 | 3534 | -762.04 | -158,504.0 | -79.17 | 4.76 |
| 6 | 0x7f9f833f28ae5f5afa7a9714c9958cde3ec6f7aa | 7683 | -753.66 | -156,761.0 | -307.25 | 1.8 |
| 7 | 0x0ff14f1dbdea689e26e4fd698f80c22b627a3e9d | 3422 | -462.78 | -96,258.0 | -115.18 | 1.43 |
| 8 | 0x41d0fd0112b038494a4e4cfdd48afef776f47214 | 14482 | -451.53 | -93,918.0 | -305.57 | 0.75 |
| 9 | 0x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e32 | 9420 | -434.61 | -90,398.0 | -266.1 | 1.78 |
| 10 | 0x5915b3bde351bc873566c868786eb4d5699d6f95 | 14083 | -405.58 | -84,360.0 | -304.04 | 0.43 |
#1 better watch out as our top loser is coming for that top spot.
As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.
Good luck and bet responsibly!