Market Update for Week 2022-06-13

Published: 2022-06-20

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More pain

Hey guys. I wasn't too plugged in this week. Anything I miss? Let me just checkout CoinMarketCap quickly and... oh my god...

Yeah, so all crypto continued its nosedive and we officially broke $1k on ETH and $20k on BTC. BNB did relatively well by only losing 20% of its value at time of writing. Actually, much of the shitcoins fared better than Bitcoin and Ethereum this week, a break from the trend we've been seeing. I held on to hope that Bitcoin will fare relatively well and the shitcoins will just pretty much go to zero. It would be a kind of clearing of the underbrush. And that may have been what was happening as people dumped their shitcoins, but this week it spread to a more pessimism about the major players in crypto.

This happens from time to time in crypto. But it feel different than last time crypto dropped 80% but I don't know if we'll get back to those levels this time. The crypto run-up started in end of 2020, around 6 months into lockdowns and right around the time the second stimulus checks went out. This was the same time as the meme stock craze. All rules about investing were thrown out the window. Bitcoin was less than $10k for much of 2020 and within 6 months it peaked at mid 60k.

There was some talk about "institutional money" in Bitcoin, but it was all bullshit. Some banks wanted to give clients exposure to Bitcoin, and some did. Some opportunistic hedge funds opened up as well and charged people 2 and 20 to hold Bitcoin futures. But overall the entire market was retail. Robinhood made the majority of their money on crypto since it had higher fees. There's a saying that when the shoeshine boy starts giving you stock tips its time to pull out. This was cryptos shoe-shine moment.

So will it recover? All other time crypto prices fell off a cliff they managed to recover. But I don't think that's possible now just because the volumes that are required. The pump was fueled by stimulus checks and increased access through Robinhood, Coinbase and other exchanges offering crypto. But a lot of these companies pulled back and may not ever recover. And there's little chance people are going to wind up with an extra few thousand dollars in their pockets any time soon. So I don't think this bubble is reinflating any time soon.

I think the technology still has a ways to go, especially level 2. I think stablecoins are a failed experiment as we've seen that the opportunity for fuckery is just way too high. My belief is we should use Bitcoin as a base layer, and build level 2 on top of that to facilitate fast cheap transactions. Incorporate that into defi-games or gambling. But the current defi landscape is untenable. It's way too complicated and rife for abuse.

Or, maybe listen to Cathie Wood that wants to... reinflate the bubble through easy money policy.

Inflation isn't a real threat. The real threat is the threat of my portfolio being down over 50% in a few months! Think of all the jobs that'll be lost when I have to liquidate my fund!


Solid volumes again. It might by because the price has dropped so much that people adjusted their bets up to bet the same fiat amount. Or maybe not. Maybe there's a renaissance in the games and more people are playing. Not that it matters really. Pancake Swap is probably reeling from the drop in crypto prices. They're probably retracting. I see that they introduced perpetual futures a while back. Only problem is they don't have the juicy bets I would like to make like BTC-CAKE. That way I could bet CAKE will under-perform BTC. But why would PS create a product that could put downward pressure on their shitcoin?

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0xaf0bfd47cb9ca6a787e48fbf2438d808def336a9 76 57.91 12,045.0 -4.58 6.72
2 0xa817fc84c86aebf1085218bf8ade261e1b921518 87 52.31 10,880.0 8.61 5.12
3 0xa6c2223e351254a4168b37f25a85206ee77c8121 12 47.93 9,969.0 8.41 4.58
4 0xe57793f463bd19225c0c3f44d61ee268678d4eb7 339 32.046,663.0 3.9 1.34
5 0x509a1a5d729736815a922c20a94beb823de6b9ed 154 30.726,390.0 10.55 1.62
6 0x57810a910835f6eedfbfe08a9fe605fe788fe2fc 41 30.67 6,380.0 2.05 4.75
7 0x2b00dc724c461a29fa7d21036ee274cef78b8bf3 11 29.1 6,052.0 3.79 5.99
8 0xfdfbfd4e1a9047e5e0f8ccbb4b065c324e5d1f7c 18 28.68 5,966.0 4.66 5.33
9 0x69de1e6a05ebcc6112756139b8141fcc6e5fd70b 209 27.725,765.0 -7.66 1.63
100xfd7a3ce693646a325cc87bcd61ccaa3beceff952 153 27.455,709.0 12.31 1.82

Our #1 is weird. Bets all over the place, ranging from 0.0024 BNB to 20+ BNB. Even money he was a loser, but he hit big with some big bets so he tops the leaderboard.

I'm now always on the lookout for our favorite aggregator. And sure enough, he takes the number 2 spot for this week with an impressive haul of 52 BNB in just 87 bets. Again he's funding his accounts through Binance hot wallet to avoid anybody shadowing his trades. Smart guy.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 1099 -181.1-37,670.0 -93.78 1.4
20xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac 402 -106.1 -22,069.0 -25.31 1.9
30x34890f282f698bac63be94971f711a6496e4788f 306 -100.39 -20,882.0 -17.88 3.49
40xb32bfa4daa60e5e0941d0ffe589720375e76ba10 20 -72.47 -15,073.0 -5.05 8.62
50x1fdad7bc32d227da174bb6f35c28a5a1837b73e5 24 -69.1 -14,372.0 -7.57 7.25
60xf7158d79a9939b880cc79dac9492a466d9d587a0 557 -66.71 -13,875.0 -0.75 3.77
70x75977e22f0e662c9f116b1b8a47b6941cf64deac 241 -64.0 -13,313.0 1.54 3.27
80xf12b6d25694a2b1c4c0533600ba8d0d47e6f3e48 152 -57.91 -12,045.0 -5.81 4.19
90x22f34a0ddd74559b30a96b4b5b88b0cf26866c76 23 -55.52 -11,549.0 -3.01 9.82
100x7bc5dd5040310c91a303729104ef3561c16c86e3 17 -45.84 -9,536.0 -6.71 7.16

The lose that just can't stop. Our #1 loser this week just cracked 1,000 BNB total lifetime losses over 17k games. He's been featured many times on the blog and continues to deliver. On our recap on 2022-05-22 he was #4 all-time loser having lost 711 BNB.. I'm happy to report he's shot up to 2nd place. Here is the all time loser leader board

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xc8923536f8c1a348f15e87315740bb5933aeb4c9 3320 -1,751.76 -364,366.0 -162.59 5.67
20xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 17605 -1,023.6 -212,909.0 -756.45 1.2
30xc46cf5e7a4d11b9f1f9c86c02ed5a7fc6a119c92 20617 -959.61 -199,599.0 -650.6 0.9
40xc1f265e222c5a4b6c8c536f9cc138c648518b6ac 4652 -820.68 -170,701.0 -243.87 2.46
50x32a7ca42d196289518b03fbb5ecfc4f5f3505bb9 3534 -762.04 -158,504.0 -79.17 4.76
60x7f9f833f28ae5f5afa7a9714c9958cde3ec6f7aa 7683 -753.66 -156,761.0 -307.25 1.8
70x0ff14f1dbdea689e26e4fd698f80c22b627a3e9d 3422 -462.78 -96,258.0 -115.18 1.43
80x41d0fd0112b038494a4e4cfdd48afef776f47214 14482 -451.53 -93,918.0 -305.57 0.75
90x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e32 9420 -434.61 -90,398.0 -266.1 1.78
100x5915b3bde351bc873566c868786eb4d5699d6f95 14083 -405.58 -84,360.0 -304.04 0.43

#1 better watch out as our top loser is coming for that top spot.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!