Market Update for Week 2022-07-04

Published: 2022-07-11

Subscribe to receive an email every time a new post has been published. You can also email me here.

All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.


I don't have much commentary for the last week. Crypto prices stabilized with 20k and 1k the new normal for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

I will note that Economist had an article echoing what I had been saying the last few weeks. Hell, even Wall Street Journal had essentially the same article. It talks about how Bankman-Fried from FTX is setting himself up to become the JP Morgan of crypto. It's not a terrible analogy. There was a huge amount of consolidation in banking over the last 50 years, and its continued into 2008 crisis. Any time there's a crisis, consolidation is a by-product. Either the losers go out of business or combine forces. In 2008 it was a bit different as companies were forced to merge, but the results were the same.

What was the last large national bank that was created in the US? I think the last one was Ally Bank, and that was just a spin-off of General Motors banking division. Since then there has been no new banks or innovation in that field. This is mostly due to onerous regulations. There's been some new stuff on the margin, but that's mostly around robo-investing and brokerages (e.g. Robinhood). And they use the traditional banking network for their financial services (shout out to Citadel).

I also got a kick out of this clip from Marc Andreesen, a well known VC guy from Y-Combinator and heavy investor into crypto. It's from a few weeks ago but I just listened to his interview with Joe Rogan this week and it reminded me of this clip:

Here he talks about web3 and how it could transform the podcast business model. You see him struggling here a bit because ... it's kind of a dumb idea? Anyone could make a paid podcast today. I think substack makes it easy, or just host the RSS feed personally. You could also do a subscription, have private chats for subscribers or pretty much anything he described. There's nothing that web3 opens up except the 'hip' factor of being on the blockchain. But that may be enough! Who knows. If someone started selling monkey pictures without blockchain, would it really have taken off? I don't know...


Action dropped off a bit this week. It might be because everyone is playing the CAKE/USDT prediction markets... HAHAHA. No that's a joke. Of course no one is playing that. Volumes are a few hundred per round, compared to ~$7k per round on BNB/USDT. To the PancakeSwap admin lurker, no one wants your CAKE coin. Drop it. It doesn't matter what the yield is or how much you promise to burn a week. It's inflationary, centrally controlled and has no real utility. If people want to play the lottery, they should just convert, play and convert back. Enough with the shit-coins.

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0xf6152ae9e8d5003cc29856b1ffeb2166317fa30e 68 65.71 13,668.0 7.59 6.32
2 0x35d0cb912c4c37110087f322fb11161a14e5dab6 412 64.36 13,387.0 16.49 1.24
3 0x2e4c5c4b0b7c6b8c02d3c30cb59629d01ec8f074 30 39.61 8,238.0 5.49 3.65
4 0x2bb17510976aa3ddb1ba11f1e0ac008be4e58948 213 38.39 7,986.0 5.65 2.17
5 0x37f9bbd2bd0f2328dfb8c13a22522da2e9c7cc1b 105 38.37 7,982.0 8.56 4.83
6 0xbe88fc5105591f0a41fd6226d55517229ec6d5bf 49 24.99 5,199.0 11.98 0.91
7 0xa10a7ba683d8e5b7dfc5fa0744c15288bdabeba6 222 24.33 5,061.0 14.8 1.03
8 0x5114e979302965007d5ce7390c7982e7a3488b23 6 24.19 5,032.0 2.67 8.35
9 0xad483dc8c4482eafdbebbc98ea66a89e461cfbd9 874 24.19 5,031.0 21.37 1.57
100xa6ac9b806162936872a4cc63bea6862c837a75e5 10 19.84 4,128.0 2.7 5.2

The best weekly winners continue to stay depressed, although we have a few strong algo-players this week. #2 sticks out with 412 games played and winnings of 64 BNB but if you look at their total win rate, you'll see they only won 17.7 BNB during the life of the games. So they're having a bit of a comeback this week. But I doubt it'll last.

Let's look at the losers

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
10xb6eadca535c104fd159b5e54b28e0df032203d95 147 -167.92 -34,927.0 -33.64 4.67
20x2563e690da0b98d1d3e4d03a99d8b2a75c2a7e32 556 -158.26 -32,918.0 -43.62 2.98
30x75074b7ddd62e73df3eab589d75ecad010c3b4bc 43 -154.07 -32,046.0 -10.71 16.99
40xcfdfd0ff36d48287607dfe8839c869356a0dcd18 4 -138.86 -28,884.0 -2.75 59.32
50xab370510c76216b7c7428c9e56b86f25791cfa31 247 -111.39 -23,170.0 -23.46 4.33
60xed3fec88f5360935151f3cf9891be1b0e3e75fc7 65 -96.57 -20,087.0 -17.23 6.02
70xabf2717bf3b6e591e7158c9587ce8fff133c968e 56 -64.22 -13,359.0 -9.67 3.32
80x851a390e7a62d909f3a0d0099196152f10403f86 177 -59.28 -12,330.0 -19.01 2.77
90xea43239c4a746f12d635a6b958bbf33d6699616d 80 -49.03 -10,198.0 -10.64 4.47
100x53290544913ce391ae0e7776dbc9b07176d38b49 71 -46.66 -9,706.0 -17.5 2.54

Big losers this week! Our top loser is new to the games but came through with had an impressive showing by losing 160+ BNB in a single week with a average bet size of 4.67. I also have to give a special shoutout to our #4 loser, who dropped 98 BNB in a single round!

He was coming in hot from a 78 BNB win which won him... 19 BNB. I'm not an expert, but that seems like of bad in terms of payoffs. But that's what happens when you bet big. It looks like he was betting through a bot as his last bet was 0.6 because he ran out of money! Maybe he mixed up his wei conversion. Who knows... But remember, if you're betting through a bot, always seed your account with very little in case you messed up a decimal point or something. Or don't, I don't care, because we love our losers.

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!