Market Update for Week 2021-12-13

Published: 2021-12-20

Subscribe to receive an email every time a new post has been published.

All of the round data referenced below can be downloaded from here. The data is part of a project that downloads round data periodically and uploads the csv.

Lottery primer and winners & losers

In case you missed it, this week I wrote a winners and losers lottery edition. There I detailed PancakeSwap lottery game as well as a deep dive analysis of the big winners and losers in that game.

Volumes pick back up

This week we saw volumes pick up considerably in the second half of the week. 24-hour trailing pool sizes topped 40 BNB, a level that hasn't been seen for a while.


We had one brief stoppage this week. When you zoom out, the recent volume on prediction markets is really quite astonishing. These are some of the biggest 24 hour trailing pool sizes we've seen since October (red lines are stoppages).


What's interesting about this jump in volume is that it didn't coincide with a jump in the BNB price. When we saw these levels in October, the BNB price was mooning well above 600 and overall enthusiasm for crypto was a lot higher. This week we saw the price drop from mid-high 500s to low-mid 500s.

It might be that people have more downtime and are playing more. Or more people are betting using the trading bot I released last week!

We had some absolutely massive rounds. The biggest round this week was 28504 with a total amount of 124 BNB. This was the #15 biggest round in v2 history.

285042021-12-16 23:18:31124.455763
289482021-12-18 14:44:24116.505174
289852021-12-18 17:54:54114.718893
289772021-12-18 17:13:42108.894253
290392021-12-18 22:32:53106.671765
289432021-12-18 14:18:4299.683918
280742021-12-15 10:24:2198.152339
290342021-12-18 22:07:0896.970815
287992021-12-18 01:57:1296.318755
290402021-12-18 22:38:0293.874915

As any regular reader of this blog knows, big rounds usually mean bets, which usually means big losses! This case is no different!


Gut wrenching loss on 28504, with a 0.01 difference! 1 cent could have tipped the scale! At least you know this guy isn't cheating by trying to move the oracle by bidding otherwise he would have certainly not let this happen. He had some big wins, but overall just reckless behavior!

With that being said, we might as well get into it!

Winners and Losers

Placeaccountgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0x89bb80b57a27fd30f00b47071c8344d9fca781e99989.96 51,300.013.837.84
2 0x63601e212e97d3291999ecea62ba0b8e88d5216637757.1 32,490.0-7.522.5
3 0xdd0c7c6fbb415e685785f0f3027f77e461f654686545.95 26,220.0-0.882.49
4 0xdeae6840f904dd64b4d4cbd582d237f930b1b27942444.5725,650.033.340.46
5 0xa1469b3ad38ac8a7720475b6abefb05f3d115ae96942.34 23,940.06.872.87
6 0xaffb9821885947dcef0ce979763f18b3ea89b4787837.95 21,660.07.981.21
7 0xb425eef72c47e36355dc8b39f47d121fc518d0bc4828.09 15,960.021.961.28
8 0x4b06fa4daaa2f1fada0c5afe1159ea8f21d3fe5a16927.8315,960.063.980.36
9 0x2248dbde9ce146029cc73159c0cd54f025b78aa81527.52 15,960.03.645.46

Not only did 0x89bb have a great week, but he had such a good week, he climbed to #2 on the leaderboard! His bet style is erratic, betting 30 BNB in one round, and only 0.2 BNB in the next. Fine, that may have been a fat finger, which is too bad because he won that round.


In the last 20 rounds, he actually blew through 46 BNB! I don't know about you but I wouldn't be able to handle that kind of stress. I predict he won't be on top for long...

0x6360 (#2) had a great weak as well, but if you notice, it was all because of his bet sizing! His even money bets (assuming same bet size for all bets) is -7.52. Same is true for #3.

One other thing you might notice is that the volumes on the winners are pretty low. Most of them played less than 100 games over the week. Compare that to last week where only 2 of the top 10 played fewer than 100 games and #1 and #2 played 525 and 636 games, respectively. I think algo-trading is much less profitable and the games are getting more chaotic and less predictable. That or the payouts are being priced correctly, removing all alpha algo-traders had.

Now onto our losers.

Placefromgames playedwonwon USDWinnings Even MoneyAverage bet size
1 0x41c5e98c3cc4ecddb889ceb16e8b09c2e67007ca148-163.65-93,480.0-16.733.08
2 0x2a2df0621cbb1f4a9a1c164eef28c93663423dbe229-145.02-82,650.0-8.515.56
3 0x5fb48a23f050be5f499f9e05e288e34c5536e1e5160-143.45-81,510.04.285.83
4 0x169e5425cbca7992b51f0cb97dfe665c69245b2c126-120.81-68,970.0-16.948.47
5 0x415636005128c69fbbc63fc5689bd50693e91925169-74.59 -42,750.0-20.883.11
6 0x5e2f59f5fda17b08eba332b680185cee5f022a31368-71.59 -41,040.0-35.81.43
7 0xea1cebd819208434059afa05d436e26504025891482-70.12 -39,900.0-10.491.62
8 0x358d5195c6641af9fd971baaa19ae4988df2d96a165-65.67 -37,620.0-15.573.34
9 0x48efbe5f12fdbf637f60f1a35ac3e90d61607ae479-55.17 -31,350.0-3.5519.42
10 0x0633a6b20f1541681466eff9cca3618cc318d72254-53.72 -30,780.0-8.583.08

0x41c5 (#1) had a bad week. He showed up twice on this blog (2021-12-06 and 2021-12-13) as a winner. but this week he gave it all back and then some.

0x169e (#4) graced the blog as well on 2021-12-13 but as a loser. He continues his decline with a total loss of 379.4 BNB.

Tis' the season for whales dropping big stacks on the games, and for that we salute you!

And that's all for this week. Lots of good things coming up!

As always, feel free to reach out with questions or comments or want my to highlight anything different on my weekly market recaps. If you like what you read and want to subscribe to receive an email when a new post is published, click here.

Good luck and bet responsibly!